Attractive returns
A quick look at the deal structure and the offer looks very attractive for subscribers willing to stay the course for a year, even without any capital appreciation via share price gains. Based on a £1,000 investment, the deal structure suggests you could;
- Save yourself £50 via the 5% discount
- Net yourself dividends of circa £50 (2015 final + 2016 interim dividends)
- Net a £100 in bonus shares for a year’s loyalty (max value £200)
The above implies a potential gain of £200 to £300; a 20-30% return on investment.
Add to this any future dividends (possibly even a special dividend) if you hold the shares for longer than 12 months and the returns are even more compelling compared to the miserable low single-digit interest rates (if you’re lucky) being paid on the best UK savings accounts.
A very strong alternative home for your cash I’m sure you’ll agree. And these returns don’t even factor in any potential share price upside towards the broker consensus average target of 92p per share.
If anything, the 5% discount and 10% loyalty bonus could be viewed as a 15% cushion for shareholders in case the share price fell (we don’t include dividends as these are never guaranteed; business concerns could always see these cut). Assuming the shares stay static around the current 75p level implies you would still be at breakeven if they fell to 63.75p (last traded July 2013).
What do I need to do?
To participate in this landmark Lloyds share offering and return of the bank to privatization you simply need to open a trading account with Accendo to register your interest and be kept aware of any news on or changes to the deal structure.
It is important that you do this soon, to be in a position to move quickly as the government has a habit of accelerating these transactions to make hay while the sun shines (a June Royal Mail stake sale is a case in point, happening much earlier than anticipated).
What are my options right now?
While there is much excitement about the offer we note that it is being set up to favour those requesting £1,000 or less. This is similar to what we saw for the Royal Mail IPO in October 2013, with most investors limited to stakes of £750. This was designed to encourage share price stability by distributing many small stakes far and wide (limited number of shares, limited gains, less likely to sell quickly). The government’s loyalty bonus for this Lloyds offer is a secondary measure to ensure no quick sales.
If interested in Lloyds shares, it’s probably not just on account of the attractive discount and bonus. It’s probably because you see upside potential for the shares and rising dividends. However, what happens if the shares rally towards broker targets of 100p between now and next spring? Would you like to buy Lloyds shares at 100p, or would you prefer to buy them 25% lower at current levels?
We suggest that any investors looking for immediate and/or more exposure to any potential Lloyds share price rise could consider CFDs as an alternative with a £10,000 position requiring just a 5% deposit (£500).
As the chart on the next page show, the shares offer 40% upside to the most bullish target and a still handsome 23% upside to consensus. Note also that 95% of brokers have targets above the current share price and several are touting 100p or more.
Top see how this looks on a chart, see over;
