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US Banks: Quarterly health check

Next week sees the start of quarterly reporting season in the US, which means that it won’t be long until companies begin reporting results here in Europe too. Why so important? Because a certain key sector, namely the Banks, is first up. And this can offer a great indicator of economic health and thus a guide for equity market sentiment.

It’s well known how much of an influence the US has over global sentiment. You only have to look at the impact of Donald Trump’s tweets and the Fed’s interest rate decisions. So what their banks report in terms of revenues and profits can move their shares heavily. What we are particularly interested in is the potential read-across for European banks, especially those listed on the FTSE. How did each division fare in Q2? Did market volatility help? How did investment banking fare versus Retail? How solid are their balance sheets?

We’ve just sent out our Week in Advance calendar to clients so they are aware which US banks report next week. It’s the big guns like Citigroup, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo seeing as you ask. Not the high street names you are familiar with like Barclays, Lloyds, RBS and HSBC here at home, but you’ll probably remember them from the financial crisis. They were rarely out of the news. For several years.

However, if you want to know when the rest of the US banks (think Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley), and what the consensus expectations are for them all in terms of sales and profits growth, dividends and buybacks …. Well, I’m not going to give that away here am I? I’m trying to demonstrate quality of service. Hence why I invite you to  get access to our great Research and hand-picked Trade ideas to see for yourself what we provide to our clients each trading day of the week, month, quarter and year.

In fact, part of the research trial is being able to speak to me for a fortnight, as much or as little as you like. That way you can put me on the spot, test my market knowledge and let me show you how I can help you in your trading/investing. Some clients talk to me multiple times a day, for others it’s once a week. It’s a personal thing. It depends how and what you trade/invest in. We’re here to help you do what you want to do, not steer you. Like the Banks, it’s time for us to show you our results.

But as the sayings go, “strike while the iron’s hot”, “the early bird catches the worm” and “fail to prepare; prepare to fail”. So why not strike now,  catch that worm and prepare yourself for the UK reporting season? Especially with the UK banks scheduled to report from end July into early August, and their shares down between 6% and 16% from recent highs, offside by 10-20% for 2018, and trading at/just above their lows.

Which among them might report the best/worst results in a few weeks and see the biggest share price moves? Who might rebound strongly? Who might break lower? Who will be helping you? I sincerely hope it’s me.

Have a great weekend and (unless you’re Swedish) “Come On England”!

Chris Peters, Trader, 6 July 2018

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.


Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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