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Home / Blog / blog / Trader’s Corner || Trendsetter Puts Best Foot Forward || 17-01-20

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Trader’s Corner || Trendsetter Puts Best Foot Forward || 17-01-20

Fashion favourite, Boohoo, has seen its shares rise five per cent this week, taking the online brand’s value higher than high street stalwart Marks and Spencer.

Boohoo’s share price reached a record high, now standing at 324.50p, after the fashion forward firm reported a profit upgrade. The clothing retailer said it expects full year revenues to be between 40 and 42 per cent ahead of last year, after previously forecasting sales growth of between 33 and 38 per cent.

Boohoo has certainly carved a successful niche for itself in the teen and twenty-something market – its overall revenue in the four months up to the end of December has grown by 44 per cent in the same period year-on-year. So, can it continue setting the trends or is the stock set to plateau?

Most analysts think the current streak of success is set to continue although some have pointed out that its valuation is high – its forward earnings multiple for the year to February 2021 is around 50. The general consensus though is that Boohoo’s strong digital marketing, use of social media influencers and the diversity in its brand ranges mean it has plenty more scope for growth. Chief Executive, John Lyttle said the online retailer enjoyed ‘record trading’ in the final four months of 2019 and its share price has risen more than 70 per cent over the last year.

It’s not been such an uplifting week for fashion retailer N. Brown as its shares plunged 27 per cent after it issued a profit warning. Shares in the fashion retailer, which owns SimplyBe and Jacamo, now stand at 106.20p at the time of writing, after it adjusted its annual pre-tax profit expectations to between £70 and £72 million, down from between £78 and £84.1 million.

Boohoo saw its overall revenue slip five per cent for the 18 weeks to the 4th January, and it dismayed investors further by announcing it expects profits for this year to come in at a similar level.

The profit warning comes just after analysts were talking about a ‘sustainable recovery for the retailer with Peel Hunt previously sensing ‘deep value’ in the shares due to a 4.5% yield. So, does this assessment still stand or is the stock destined for the bargain bin?

Regulatory changes to the way credit is managed have had a big impact on N. Brown with its financial services arm reporting a 4.6 per cent drop in revenues. With further stringent rules on credit limits and debt management due to come into force in March and December, the retailer is exploring new financial products, but the regulatory changes are likely to be a contributory factor in the flat forecast for 2021.

Analysts were slightly shaken by the profit warning – Shore Capital said it was expecting ‘a somewhat more conventional update’ and it cut its 2020 profits estimate by 16 per cent. Peel Hunt slashed its price target on the stock from 200p to 150p and removed its ‘buy’ recommendation.

Johnson tried to find the positives, saying a strategic review is likely to be announced alongside full-year results in April, but whether this is enough to satisfy investors remains to be seen.

Cycling retailer, Halfords, is pedalling in the right direction with a seven per cent price hike following a strong festive performance.

Sales were up 4.6 per cent in the three months to the 4th January, with cycling sales performing particularly well especially in the electric bikes and kids’ models categories. These results suggest Halfords could finally be back on the right track after a turbulent few years where profits have been falling since 2015.

The latest results though mean Halfords has stuck to its full-year guidance of between £50m and £55m and its share price now stands at 153.57p at the time of writing.

The trading update has received a mixed reception from analysts – Liberium reaffirmed its ‘buy’ rating for the stock, and many are cautiously optimistic that the firm could be on the road to recovery. Some are not convinced the retailer is out of the woods yet though with no return to earnings growth at the moment and a dividend cut from 14p to 12p pencilled in for 2020/21.

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