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Next week’s key 24 hours

At times, it looked like it would never happen. But thankfully, over breakfast in Brussels, we have the first agreement of Brexit negotiations. But with the next round of talks not starting well into 2018, what should traders be watching next?

Famed for events such as Super Wednesday and Thursday, central banks return to drive the markets with some gusto next week.

Not only do we have the largest central bank in the world, the Federal Reserve, updating the market on Wednesday evening, but both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank also provide policy updates within 24 hours of their North American peers.

All in all, it’s going to be an exciting few hours for traders looking to trade on these market-moving events, but what exactly are we expecting to see from the updates?

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates for the third time this year, with Fed fund futures all but pricing in a rate hike. This marks a momentous occasion for outgoing Fed Chair Janet Yellen before she bows out to colleague Jerome Powell. Crucially, investors will be watching the central bank’s ‘dot plot’ – how its members see progressing over the course of the next 12 months and beyond – and Yellen’s final press conference as Fed chair. Will she leave on an optimistic note for the world’s number one economy? Or might she offer stark warnings as she leaves the board of governors only four years as its Chair?

The Bank of England takes the stage next, releasing its policy decision at 12pm on Thursday. While no changes are expected just over a month since it raised interest for the first time in a decade, and no press conference is scheduled, the release will be scrutinised for any change in projections to its previous update – where Governor Carney and co guided towards just two rate hikes in the next three years.

Finally, Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank complete the line up at 12:45 the very same day, with the President’s press conference taking place at 1:30pm. Having announced the long-awaited tapering of its vast quantitative easing (QE) programme back in October, investors are now looking to see when and by how much the Bank will cut once the first phase of tapering comes to an end.

So what UK 100 sectors are likely to be most sensitive to these all-important updates?

Kicking off with the Federal Reserve, those stocks that are US dollar sensitive are likely to catch the eye. US-exposed companies such as building materials companies Ashtead and CRH, as well as North American cruise operator Carnival are all sensitive to movements of the global reserve currency. If the dollar were to rise, profits for these companies would look more attractive in Sterling terms, something that tends to see their share prices rise.

Closer to home, European defensive stocks such as Diageo and Unilever are both reactive to Euro fluctuations, while the UK Housebuilders – reliant on mortgages sensitive to changes in interest rates – will be closely watched by UK 100 traders.

Also on the radar across all three events will be the Gold miners Fresnillo and Randgold Resources. Not only is the precious metal susceptible to movements in the US dollar, but as a non-yielding safe-haven asset, global interest rates have a direct impact on investor demand.

If you are thinking about, or already are, trading any of these companies, then you need to make sure you know the key takeaways from each of these meetings. That’s where Accendo Markets comes in. Our in-house research team are here to dissect the numbers for you, providing a breakdown of the all-important numbers to help our clients make sense of things. Why not join them? Sign up here to receive our research direct from the team themselves.


James Abbott, Senior Trader, 8 December


 

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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