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Morning Report

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Vedanta Resources PLC 1225 50 4.3 20.69
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 174.1 5.6 3.3 18.11
Glencore International PLC 429.2 13.45 3.2 9.49
BAE Systems PLC 300.3 9 3.1 5.33
IMI PLC 1009 29.5 3 32.76
Xstrata PLC 1183 34 3 20.96
Kazakhmys PLC 882 24.5 2.9 -4.85
Antofagasta PLC 1201 32 2.7 -1.15
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Centrica PLC 310.2 -12.3 -3.8 7.22
GlaxoSmithKline PLC 1413.5 -44 -3 -3.94
Tesco PLC 317 -8.45 -2.6 -21.43
Reed Elsevier PLC 512.5 -13.5 -2.6 -1.25
Man Group PLC 95.2 -1.8 -1.9 -24.26
Polymetal International PLC 939 -11 -1.2 -14.17
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC 285.2 -3.3 -1.1 -12.57
BP PLC 432.3 -4.3 -1 -6.12
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK 100 5718.89 9.4 0.16 2.63
11334.5 62.27 0.55 12.19
CAC 40 3233.46 64.14 2.02 2.33
DAX (Xetra) 6704.5 114.09 1.73 13.67
Dow Jones Industrial Average 13090.7 89.14 0.69 7.15
Nasdaq Comp. 3029.63 68.03 2.3 16.29
S&P 500 1390.69 18.72 1.36 10.58
Nikkei 225 9561.83 0.82 0.01 13.09
Hang Seng 20727.76 81.47 0.39 12.44
S&P/ASX 200 4375.2 14.75 0.34 7.85
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil Light Sweet Composite 104.135 0.085 0.08 5.2
Gold Composite 1649.95 6.75 0.41 5.31
Silver Composite 30.7075 0.0525 0.17 10.55
Palladium Composite 666.6 3.4 0.51 1.47
Platinum Composite 1557.3 4.6 0.3 11.15
GBP/USD – US $ per £ 1.6178 0.01 4.17
EUR/USD – US$ per Euro 1.3231 0 2.13
GBP/EUR – Euros per £ 1.2227 0.04 1.91
UK Index called to open +10pts

UK 100 (Futures, UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 10:00     EZ          Confidence Figs
  • 11:00     UK          CBI Reported Sales & Expects
  • 13:30     US          Chicago Fed & Jobless
  • 15:00     US          Pending Home Sales
  • Click for full Live Macro calendar, incl. consensus

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires):

  • Barclays Q1 profit up on investment bank rebound
  • Enquest to buy further stake in North Sea Kraken discovery
  • Cobham starts year well, order book grows
  • Whitbread profit up, growth continues into new year
  • McBride says sales +3% in year to date
  • Borders & southern says raises £46.5m in placing
  • Asos Q4 retail sales +34%
  • Meggitt expects FY sales to grow by at least 10%
  • SEGRO – £5.5m of rental income secured in Q1
  • BAT Q1 volumes +0.7%
  • Taylor Wimpey says trading is at upper end of its view
  • Croda posts Q1 pretax profit growth
  • Kazakhmys Weather hits Q1 production
  • AstraZeneca Q1 revenue and earnings fall
  • Unilever warns of tough times even as Q1 sales rise

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +10pts after US posted good gains following the blowout earnings from tech giant Apple which overshadowed some murky macro data (UK GDP back in contraction, which is at odds with other recent industry data; US durable goods orders collapsing; a technically uncovered German bond auction). Sentiment also helped by some European politicians moving focus to growth over austerity, hoping to reduce the longer-term fallout from excessive short-term of stimulus.

The Fed left rates and its dovish statement unchanged (rates low until end-2014), but acknowledged that inflation had ticked up and unemployment remained high despite the economy expanding moderately. It also reiterated that it was prepared to do more if necessary, meaning the door has not been closed on more QE. Same true in the UK, after recent contradictory macro data? IMF comments were also positive on the health of Spain’s top banks (sufficiently capitalised? really?) while ratings agency Fitch suggested that strong US manufacturing is masking weakness from emerging behemoth China.

Overnight macro data shows UK Consumer confidence returning to growth (highest level in 9 months). Asian markets positive after Fed Chairman Bernanke’s press conference, however gains  being kept in check by Eurozone worries. New Zealand also left rates unchanged. Focus now turns to the Bank of Japan which where it is expected to ease policy further.

At first glance, this morning’s Q1 results from Barclays, AstraZeneca and Royal Dutch Shell appear to have beaten consensus expectations.  The fact that these three account for over 12% of the UK 100 likely helping contribute to  the index’ s positive opening call.

Morning Press Selection:

  • Banks take provisions for PPI past £6bn (FT)
  • Pound hit by UK’s fall into recession (FT)
  • Yen decline seen unlikely despite BoJ easing move (FT)
  • Industrial metals bulls point to uplift by end-2012 (FT)

Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • UK        Nationwide Consumer Confidence – Better than expected
  • JP         All Ind Activity Index – Better than expected
  • AUS      Conf Board Leading Index – Growth dropped

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