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Morning Report - 5 February 2019

Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Rentokil Initial 349.5 9.1 2.67 3.65
Sage Group 642.8 16 2.55 6.88
TUI 1190 28.5 2.45 5.73
Halma 1450 28 1.97 6.3
Royal Dutch Shell 2431 46.5 1.95 3.89
Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Imperial Brands 2505.5 -53.5 -2.09 5.41
Schroders 2065 -35 -1.67 0
NMC Health 2538 -42 -1.63 -7.24
WPP 863 -14 -1.6 1.94
Glencore 301.75 -4.4 -1.45 3.57
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK FTSE 100 7,034.1 13.9 0.20 4.6
UK FTSE 250 18,848.8 37.4 0.20 7.7
FR CAC 40 5,000.2 -19.1 -0.38 5.7
DE DAX 30 11,176.6 -4.1 -0.04 5.9
US DJ Industrial Average 30 25,239.3 175.3 0.70 8.2
US Nasdaq Composite 7,347.5 83.7 1.15 10.7
US S&P 500 2,724.9 18.3 0.68 8.7
JP Nikkei 225 20,844.5 -39.3 -0.19 4.1
HK Hang Seng Index 50 27,990.2 59.5 0.21 8.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 6,005.9 114.7 1.95 6.4
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 54.81 0.59 0.01 20.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 62.72 0.42 0.01 15.8
Gold ($/oz) 1314.32 -0.08 0.00 2.5
Silver ($/oz) 15.90 -0.07 0.00 2.8
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.3044 0.13 2.3
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1431 -0.03 -0.3
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1410 0.16 2.6
FTSE 100 called to open +20pts at 7055

FTSE 100: 3-month, 4-hour

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

FTSE 100 called to open +20pts at 7055, extending its January bounce and breakout from August’s 6-month falling channel. Bulls need a break above 7070 overnight highs to extend the uptrend towards 7200. Bears require a breach of 7040 for a reversal to re-test 7000. Watch levels: Bullish 7070, Bearish 7040

Calls for a positive open come after Wall St traded higher, with Tech sector leading the way. After hours, FAANGS pared some of the gains after Alphabet beat consensus on profits/revenue, but investors worried about a chunky $25bn R&D investment bill (+40% QoQ, +90% YoY) echoing big spending by peers which may be a sign of it becoming more expensive to keep growing so fast.

Asia trading was more subdued, China/HK still closed for New Year celebrations. Australia’s ASX was the regional outperformer, with dual-listed miners surging after the Brazilian government ordered a halt to mining dams that contributed to Vale’s latest disaster (RIO +3%, BHP +1%).

Company news this morning BP Q4 underlying recoverable cost profit +65% YoY to $3.4bn, beating $2.9bn consensus, underlying op. cash flow +14.5% also beat. Upstream profit +74.8%, downstream +47.1%, Rosneft +34.2%. Upstream production +1.8%. Dividend +2.5%. Expects FY’19 underlying production higher, but Q1 expected flat as North Sea/Alaska divestments offset by BHP asset acquisitions.

Ocado FY18 Retail revs +12%, Solutions +15.8%, Costs +19.1%, Retail EBITDA +4.2%, Group EBITDA -20%; Net loss quadruples; Partner Fees +37%, Cash +174% (now net cash); FY19 retail revs seen +10-15% further Retail EBITDA growth, CAPEX £350m (+66% vs +33% in 2018). No CFCs opening in 2019, Solutions revs growth to be ahead of Retail, but decline in EBITDA due to £15-20m extra op costs.

Indivior denied rehearing by US Court of Appeals after CAFC vacated preliminary injunction against Dr Reddy’s. Indivior intends to file emergency motion, assuming Dr Reddy’s and Alvogen will resume launches of generic sublingual film in US once CAFC issues mandates on 11 Feb and 31 Jan, respectively. Indivior branded version could lose 80% of market.

FTSE Retailers could be sensitive to BRC like-for-like sales +1.8% YoY, the most in nearly 6 years, beating expectations of a -0.2% drop, and after -0.7% in Dec. That said, festive three month sales Nov-Jan (+0.8%) were weaker than last year (1.5%), and just +0.1% on a like-for like basis.

AstraZeneca granted fast-track breakthrough therapy designation by US FDA for MEDI8897 antibody treatment for lower respiratory tract infections (already has EU fast-track designation) after P2b 2 trial showed significant reduction in observed cases in healthy infants.

DCC Q3 gross op profit in-line, significantly ahead of last year, in spite of milder winter. LPG, Retail & Oil, Healthcare and Tech all delivered strong op. profit growth, in-line. Guidance unchanged.

St Modwen Properties FY NAV/share +4.3% (missing 5% consensus), ERPA NAV/share +2.7% YoY, adj. ERPA earnings +7.8%, total accounting return flat, profit flat, see-through loan-to-value -7.3pts to 16.9%, dividend +13%. Chairman Bill Shannon to retire at the upcoming AGM.

In focus today will be Eurozone PMI Services (8.15-9am) for January, with all but Germany forecast to confirm a worsening, including the region as a whole. France expected even deeper into contraction (47.5 vs 49), Italy flirting a fresh with breakeven.

UK PMI Services (9.30am) is nonetheless seen flat at 51 although Eurozone Retail Sales (10am) may show weak December growth, falling negative to reverse a solid October and November.

This afternoon’s US PMI Services (2.45pm) is foreseen delivering a very respectable 54 in Jan, but confirm a third straight month of slowing. ISM Non-Manufacturing (3pm), is likely to have given up more ground since the Sept/Oct/Nov peak.

Bucking the US trend may be US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (3pm) for Feb, forecast bouncing from its Dec/Jan trough.

Quarterly earnings reports are to be expected from the likes of Anadarko Petroleum, Charles Schwab, Ralph Lauren, Snap, Texas Instruments, Viacom and Walt Disney.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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