Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +25pts at 7580, extending its bounce from 5-week lows (7545). That said, 1-week falling highs resistance still looms large at 7650, which could prevent any meaningful rebound. Bulls need a break above 7590; Bears a breach of 7565. Watch levels: Bullish 7585, Bearish 7570.

Calls for a positive start come in spite of a negative close on Wall St and a weak session in Asia, where only China and HK were positive, albeit only just, having been under pressure for most of the weak. Trade tensions remain the dominant theme, clarity still lacking about how far things will ultimately go between US and China, and the potential ripple effect for world trade. Note EU tariffs on US goods kick in today and dual-listed UK Index Miners lower (-0.6/-0.7%) in Australia overnight.

The UK Index is supported by oil prices off their lows into today’s OPEC production decision meeting, which could help Energy heavyweights. This however, may be offset by GBP extending yesterday’s rebound in reaction to hawkish tones from the Bank of England (Aug rate hike?). That said the currency remains closer to 7-month lows than April highs, helpful for UK Index internationals.

In corporate news this morning, US banks passed the Fed’s latest  stress tests (read across for European peers?). Playtech gets Italian regulatory approval for mandatory full takeover of Snaitech. Syncona announces 66% IPO ($17/share/$150m) of its Autolus Therapeutics (AUTL), developing next gen T-Cell therapies for cancer. Next Fifteen Communications says good start to year; organic revenue growth remained high single digits; secured new contracts.

Gulf Keystone agrees with KRG and MOL increase Shaikan gross production to 55K bopd over 12-18 months (2017 avg. 35K); continues to negotiate with both parties, hoping for Q3 clarity on amendments to production sharing contract. Airbus says it may leave UK in case of Brexit no deal.

In focus today will be the start of a 2-day bi-annual OPEC meeting, with allies (read: Russia) joining the session on Saturday. The oil cartel is at a loggerheads over the decision to maintain or roll-back production cuts, with de-facto leader Saudi Arabia (and Russia) advocating for a boost (+0.6-1.5M barrels per day), while sanctions- and crisis-hit Iran, Iraq and Venezuela argue for cuts to continue. The final decision looks likely to involve a compromise, but a supply hike nonetheless.

In macro data, look out for flash French, German and Eurozone PMIs (8-9am), with June Manufacturing expected improved versus May’s multi-year lows, while Services hold firm. In the afternoon, US PMIs (2:45pm), are likely to remain largely stable, though still holding their best since mid-2015.

In terms of speakers today, new ECB Vice-President de Guindos (dovish) participates at the EU ECOFIN meeting in Luxembourg, while big-name corporates reporting quarterly earnings, include Canadian telco Blackberry and Fortune 500 used-car retailer CarMax.

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