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Morning Report - 14 March 2019

Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Standard Life Aberdeen 250.8 5.8 2.37 -2.32
BP 547.8 11.2 2.09 10.45
Wood Group 573.8 11.2 1.99 13.35
Schroders 2055 40 1.99 -0.48
TUI 770 12.8 1.69 -31.59
Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
GVC 542 -26 -4.58 -19.58
Hikma Pharmaceuticals 1584.5 -71 -4.29 -7.66
British American Tobacco 2980 -106 -3.43 19.2
NMC Health 2610 -62 -2.32 -4.61
Imperial Brands 2583.5 -47 -1.79 8.69
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK FTSE 100 7,159.2 8.0 0.11 6.4
UK FTSE 250 19,180.0 36.1 0.19 9.6
FR CAC 40 5,306.4 36.1 0.69 12.2
DE DAX 30 11,572.4 48.2 0.42 9.6
US DJ Industrial Average 30 25,703.0 148.3 0.58 10.2
US Nasdaq Composite 7,643.4 52.4 0.69 15.2
US S&P 500 2,810.9 19.4 0.69 12.1
JP Nikkei 225 21,287.0 -3.2 -0.02 6.4
HK Hang Seng Index 50 28,779.5 -28.0 -0.10 11.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 6,179.6 18.4 0.30 9.5
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 58.40 0.60 0.01 28.6
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 67.80 0.72 0.01 25.2
Gold ($/oz) 1303.89 -4.02 0.00 1.7
Silver ($/oz) 15.55 -0.11 -0.01 0.5
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.3253 -0.25 3.9
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1319 -0.10 -1.3
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1709 -0.15 5.3
FTSE 100 called to open -20pts at 7140

FTSE 100: 2-month, 4-hour

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview

FTSE 100 called to open -20pts at 7140, still pointing towards the apex of a March narrowing pattern, consolidating 11% gains from Christmas through mid-Feb. Bulls need a break above 7183 overnight highs to post-Christmas rising channel uptrend. Bears require a breach of yesterday’s 7125 lows to test rising support at 7100 and 7075. Watch levels: Bullish 7185, Bearish 7120

Calls for a lower open come after downbeat sentiment in Asia in the wake of mixed China macro data. Jan/Feb China Industrial Production missed expectations (+5.3% YoY vs +5.5% est./+5.7% prev.), though Investment and Retail Sales were broadly in-line. Trump’s suggestion about postponing a trade summit with Chinese counterpart Xi added to the risk-off mood.

GBP has pulled back from overnight 9-month highs, interrupting a 3%/3-day rally, following yesterday’s narrow vote in UK Parliament against a No Deal Brexit. Also pressuring the Pound and FTSE Housebuilders was disappointing Feb RICS House Price data, which hit its lowest level since May 2011 (-28 vs. -24 est./-22 prev.).

Oil prices are higher, Brent Crude trading 4-week highs, after DOE Crude Oil Inventories fell more than anticipated last week (-3.8m vs. +2.8m est./+7m prev.).

In corporate news this morning;

Watch FTSE Miners after disappointing China macro data and FTSE Housebuilders after poor RICS house price data.

Sports Direct offers Debenhams 12-month 0% unsecured £150m funding (£40m to repay bridge loan, £110m for working capital), in return for Mike Ashley becoming CEO and 5% new shares, raising his stake to 35%. Also increased stake in Game Digital to 28.43% (from 25.75%).

John Wood wins contract for new Siemens HL-class gas turbines at power station in North Carolina. Balfour Beatty selected as preferred bidder for Network Rail’s £1.5 billion Central Track Alliance contract. Gets 80% of contract (Atkins: 10%, TSO: 10%).

OneSavings Bank and Charter Court Financial Services agree all-share merger; CCFS shareholders to get 0.8253 new OSB shares; 45% stake in new group. One Savings Bank 2018 pre-tax profit +15%, loan book +23%, cost-to-income +100bp,NIM -12bp, impairments +3bp, ROE -200bp, final div +10%. CCFS 2018 pre-tax profit +41.6%, NIM -11bp, loan book +24%, retail deposits +15.9%; cost-to-income -540bp, ROE +220bp; 9.9p inaugural final div.

Capita 2018 adj. revenue -5%, adj. pre-tax profit -26%, free cash flow -209%, order book -13.4% after loss of Prudential and local govt business. Sees FY’19 pre-tax profit from -6% to +4.5% and net debt/EBITDA ratio in top half of 1.0-2.0 range. Reiterates 2020 cost savings, cash flow and margin targets. Will consider dividend payments when generating sustainable cash flow.

Just Group announced 9.99% rights issue and sale of £300m+ debt. FY gross written premiums +14.9%, total revenue -3.6%, adj. op. pre-tax profit -5% (new business +44%, in-force +1%). Solvency ratio -30bps to 136%. Expects to reinstate rebased dividend later this year.

Cineworld 2018 pro-forma admissions +2.6% (adj. for Regal acquisition), revenue +7.2%, adj. EBITDA +9.4%. Final div $0.10. Regal integration benefits better than expected, to deliver $150m FY’19 synergies. Gem Diamonds sells pink 13.33 carat diamond for $8.75m.

Savills 2018 revenues +10%, underlying profit +2% (statutory -3%), final div +3.3%; solid start to 2019 but year ahead overshadowed by macro/political uncertainties; difficult to predict; see transaction declines in a number of markets; reiterates guidance.

DFS first-half revenues +9.9% (29.1% incl. Sofology acquisition), underlying pro-forma EBITDA pre-tax profit +23.8%, leverage -0.2x, interim div unchanged; all four brands achieved like-for-like revenue growth; H2 order intake lower than H1 but guidance unchanged.

In focus today:

After twice voting to take No Deal off the Brexit table, UK MPs vote again tonight, this time on extending Article 50. Extension still requires unanimous EU27 approval, surely necessitating justification for what the PM hopes to achieve (Meaningful Vote 3.0? 2nd referendum? General election? Revoke article 50?), and how long she needs. Consensus is divided, on both sides of the house, and either side of the channel, whether it should be requested or indeed granted.

In macro data, US Export/Import Prices (12:30pm) are expected to rebound from 3 months of contraction. US Jan New Home Sales (2pm), meanwhile, are forecast broadly unchanged. Oil traders will pay close attention to the OPEC Monthly Report for important commentary on the global outlook for energy supply & demand.

In terms of speakers, the ECB’s Nowotny (8am) speaks in the Austrian parliament. Irish Central Bank Governor/incoming ECB Chief Economist Lane (4pm) addresses students in Dublin.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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