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Morning Report - 10 August 2018

Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo 1022 24.4 2.5 -28.5
Hargreaves Lansdown 2122 47 2.3 17.8
InterContinental Hotels 4734 87 1.9 0.3
Randgold Resources 5598 100 1.8 -24.5
Antofagasta 979 16.8 1.8 -2.6
Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
BT 229 -11 -4.6 -15.7
Direct Line Insurance 325.6 -8.6 -2.6 -14.7
TUI 1542.5 -40 -2.5 0.2
CRH 2539 -65 -2.5 -4.4
BP 564.4 -12.3 -2.1 8.0
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK FTSE 100 7,741.8 -34.9 -0.45 0.7
UK FTSE 250 20,806.2 35.6 0.17 0.4
FR CAC 40 5,502.3 0.4 0.01 3.6
DE DAX 30 12,676.0 42.6 0.34 -1.9
US DJ Industrial Average 30 25,509.3 -74.5 -0.29 3.2
US Nasdaq Composite 7,891.8 3.5 0.04 14.3
US S&P 500 2,853.6 -4.1 -0.14 6.7
JP Nikkei 225 22,305.1 -293.3 -1.30 -2.0
HK Hang Seng Index 50 28,329.1 -278.2 -0.97 -5.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 6,280.8 -16.9 -0.27 3.6
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 66.63 -0.24 -0.35 10.8
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 71.92 -0.26 -0.36 7.9
Gold ($/oz) 1208.59 -5.72 -0.47 -7.3
Silver ($/oz) 15.44 0.06 0.36 -8.6
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2809 -0.16 -5.2
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1458 -0.58 -4.5
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1177 0.41 -0.7
FTSE 100 Index called to open -25pts at 7715

FTSE 100: 1-month, daily

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

FTSE 100 Index called to open -25pts at 7715, testing intersecting support after 2-day falling highs caused yesterday’s bounce to reverse overnight. Bulls need a break above 7750 overnight highs for another challenge on Aug highs. Bears require a breach of this Wednesday’s 7707 lows. Watch levels: Bullish 7750, Bearish 7707

Calls for a negative open come after a flat to lower close on Wall St which Asia is dovetailing for negative end-of-week sentiment, as international trade tensions continue to take their toll, even after surprisingly good Japanese GDP data. GBP weakness is, however, proving insufficient to support the FTSE, with opposing USD strength hurting the key commodity space (oil, metals lower).

Why’s the USD strong? A combination of GBP weakness (Brexit concerns) but also EUR weakness derived from European Central Bank (ECB) concerns about continental bank exposure (via equity stakes) to Turkish counterparts as the Turkish Lira (TRY) continues to plunge due to biting US-led sanctions and growing economic concerns.

In corporate news this morning FTSE Banks may be sensitive to an FT report about the ECB being concerned about continental bank exposure (BNP Paribas, UniCredit, BBVA) to Turkish borrowers unhedged for the Lira’s (TRY) current extreme weakness.

Santander UK says competitive and uncertain operating environment resulted in H1 pre-tax profits -15% YoY although Q2 improved 18% vs. Q1; Core Tier 1 capital +50bp in H1 to 12.7%, ahead of FY target, non-performing loans fall, but costs (vs income ratio) rise to above FY target. Diageo starts £2bn buyback with a £1.4bn first tranche running today through end-Jan.

Ryanair cancels hundreds of flights due to strike action in Europe, while a Dutch court has halted the company’s attempt to block Dutch pilots joining the strikes. SSP diversifies debt sourcing with $175m US private placement (7, 10, 12yr maturities; 2.85-4.6% coupons); proceeds for reducing net debt  (£290m at H1) and general corporate usage.

IP Group announced completion of £65m financing arrangement for its cancer-treatment subsidiary. Advanced Medical Solutions gets US FDA approval for two wound-dressing products, which it expects to launch in US in Q4.

In focus today will be UK Q2 GDP (9.30am), forecast to improve from 2018 lows after extreme weather hampered Q1 to extend the trend os slowing growth from mid-2017 as Brexit uncertainty grows. Watch GBP, the FTSE and Banks.

UK Industrial Production probably rebounded in June although Construction may post flat growth, normalising, after a very strong May rebound on the back of a very weak April.

This afternoon, US Consumer Price Inflation (1:30pm) may even improve to 3% YoY from 2.9%, and core hold firm at 2.3%, still well above the Fed’s 2% target and thus vindicating further interest rate hikes this year that could keep pushing the USD higher.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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