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Morning Report - 9 May 2019

Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Micro Focus International PLC 1812 67.4 3.9 30.7
Informa PLC 786 26 3.4 24.7
Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 2321 49 2.2 25.3
Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC 6111 112 1.9 1.6
Croda International PLC 5125 90 1.8 6.7
Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Imperial Brands PLC 2180.5 -147 -6.3 -7.6
ITV PLC 123.6 -8 -6.1 -0.4
TUI AG 819.2 -32.4 -3.8 -27.1
easyJet PLC 1050 -33 -3 -4.8
SSE PLC 1121.5 -34.5 -3 3.9
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK FTSE 100 7,271.0 10.5 0.1 8.1
UK FTSE 250 19,532.0 66.2 0.3 11.7
FR CAC 40 5,417.6 21.8 0.4 14.6
DE DAX 30 12,179.9 87.2 0.7 15.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 25,967.3 2.3 0.0 11.6
US Nasdaq Composite 7,943.3 -20.4 -0.3 20.5
US S&P 500 2,879.4 -4.6 -0.2 15.3
JP Nikkei 225 21,427.0 -175.6 0.0 7.1
HK Hang Seng Index 50 28,590.5 -412.7 -1.4 10.6
AU S&P/ASX 200 6,288.8 19.7 0.3 11.4
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 61.97 0.4 0.7 37.0
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 70.32 0.5 0.7 30.3
Gold ($/oz) 1282.10 -2.8 -0.2 0.0
Silver ($/oz) 14.83 0.2 1.2 -4.1
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.3008 -0.5 2.1
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1198 0.1 -2.3
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1616 -0.5 4.4
FTSE 100 called to open -29pts at 7242

FTSE 100: 2-month, 4-hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview:

FTSE 100 called to open -29pts at 7242, continuing its downside since it breached support two days ago. Bulls need a break above yesterday’s 7270 high to create some momentum for an upside. Bears require a breach of 7215 multi-day lows. Watch levels: Bullish 7275, Bearish 7210

Calls for a negative open come as markets are preparing for the eleventh hour trade talks between the US and China due starting today and going through tomorrow. As was the tone of this week, Asian markets were all firmly in the red overnight throughout trade talk uncertainties. The US session didn’t manage to hold on to the little gains it made in the wake of Donald Trump accusing China of backtracking on assurances made during negotiations.

Gold ($1282) is moving to the tone of the market’s concern, having retraced 0.7% since yesterday’s highs. Oil ($70.2), is also factoring in economic ambiguity as it is moving within a 1.9% range for the past two days. GBP edging alongside its $1.30 floor with limited upside as investors are facing away from risk this week.

In corporate news this morning:

BT FY revenues -0.9%, slightly better than forecast; adj. EBITDA -2%; profit before tax +2%, in-line, net operating cash inflow -14%. Net debt +15% Dividend unchanged. Outlook for 2019/2020, adjusted revenue -c.2%, capital expenditure up.

GSK-Pfizer Healthcare deal not opposed by Australian regulator; won’t substantially lessen competition; Pfizer’s Advil has limited brand recognition, market share in Australia.

Morrisons Q1 like-for-like sales ex-fuel +2.3% YoY misses 2.5% est; Retail +0.2% (vs 0.6% in Q4, 1.3% in Q3) misses 0.5% est; W’sale +2.1% (vs 3.2% in Q4, 4.3% in Q3); Expects market to remain competitive/challenging; Q2 should annualise last year’s good summer weather and World Cup.

BAE Systems Q1 in line. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, EPS and 3yr cash generation target guidance unchanged. Operating cash flow expected H2 weighted as usual.

Rio Tinto CEO: China slowdown not hurting sales; ‘No doubt’ there will be a mine at Winu copper deposit; ‘Lots of uncertainty’ around future Vale iron-ore supply; Continue to prioritize value over volume in iron ore. AutoHaul completed >3m km in driverless mode; rejects AGM resolution for detailed emissions targets throughout mining supply chain because limited control over customers.

Melrose Industries trading in-line; progress being made to deliver operational improvements and achieve GKN margin objectives. CEO of 9 years David Roper to step down end-May 2020.

RSA Q1 in-line; premiums +3% YoY (underlying flat; Canada +8%, Scandi +3%, UK & Int -5%); Op profit up at constant FX, in-line reported (down?). Loss/expense ratios improved; market conditions unchanged. Pricing competitive. Financial markets produced headwinds (yields, spreads, FX).

Ocado reached agreement with Morrisons for temporary suspension of capacity at newest Customer Fulfilment Centre in Erith, SE London to mitigate impact of Andover fire. Mutual relaxation of certain exclusivity provisions, in-line with terms with our existing international clients.

Mondi Q1 strong, EBITDA +16% YoY (+6% QoQ) driven by higher average selling prices (offsetting marginally lower like-for-like sales volumes), strong operational performance, acquisitions, CAPEX and less maintenance. Strong cash generation

Barratt Developments FY outlook modestly above the Board’s previous expectations. Total Forwards Sales + 2.4%; Continue to expect to grow volume towards lower end of medium-term target range, in-line with current market expectations.

Beazley Q1 investment return +2%, gross written premiums +16% YoY, premium rates on renewal business +3%. Marine, property and reinsurance still weighing with high levels of claims.

IMI Q1 mixed results with organic revenue -2%, H1 organic revenues and profit expected to be lower.

Wood Group wins $1bn 20yr UK nuclear decommissioning contract; Appoints Roy Franklin as Chairman from 1 Sept to replace retiring Ian Marchant.

Acacia Mining says still early in Q2 but pleased with improved production levels now being achieved and remain confident of delivering against our FY production guidance of 500-550 Koz.

In focus today:

Any US-China trade talk chatter could keep markets on edge. Especially after Trump’s threats and subsequent tweets. Could a Washington-Beijing deal actually be imminent this week? Watch USD and commodities.

Macro-economic data of interest today is limited to US Producer Price Inflation (PPI; 1.30pm), forecast to continue its bounce from Feb lows (Headline and Core) which could bolster USD. Wholesale Inventories (3pm) are expected flat in March, their weakest since last May. Watch USD.

Other than that, speakers include Fed Chair Powell (1.30pm; “Renewing the Promise of the Middle Class“), Bostic (3.45pm; economic outlook and monetary policy) and Evans (6.15pm; “Renewing the Promise of the Middle Class). Watch USD and knock-on to commodities, GBP and FTSE members.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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