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This week has been a relatively quiet one on the domestic scene, as far as Brexit and UK politics is concerned. The biggest headline was the release of the YouGOV MRP poll, which projected a Conservative Party majority victory in the elections. This has had a moderate positive impact on the FTSE100, which is up slightly on the week.
After pushing upwards in the first three trading days, the FTSE 100 has slipped up in the last two days, mostly as a result of trade angst arising from the signing of the controversial “Hong Kong bil” into law by US President Donald Trump. The signing of this law has provoked the Chinese and has thrown the signing of a Phase 1 US-China trade deal into doubt.
However, the market was able to draw some enthusiasm from some corporate news, such as the technology partnership signed by online groceries company Ocado and Aeon Co Ltd, Japan’s largest supermarket chain. Ocado staged a 13% jump on the news and has risen 20% this week, making it the FTSE 100’s weekly top performer. Other top gainers on the FTSE100 this week are:
The top losers for the week are:
Technical Outlook for FTSE100
The long-term outlook remains unchanged. The progressively lower tops on the monthly chart remain intact and therefore signify that the uptrend has stalled.
Price action on the weekly chart continues to trade within the ascending channel. Within this channel, there are horizontal levels of support and resistance that have been defined by previous highs and lows. One of these price levels is the current resistance at 7420.2, which is where previous highs of June 11, September 29 and November 6 are located. This is the price ceiling of the near-term range of the last two weeks.
Below, we continue to see price being supported at 7246.4 initially (last week’s support), and this support continues to form the price floor of the range that has defined recent weekly price moves.
FTSE100 Weekly Chart: November 29, 2019
Further support is seen at the 7127.2 price area (June 3, Oct 9 and October 18 lows) and also at 7006.3 (previous lows of Aug 25 and October 3). To the upside, further resistance areas are seen at 7527.7 (previous weekly candle highs of March 18, May 6, 13 and 20).
FTSE100 Daily Chart: November 29, 2019
A 3% penetration close on the weekly chart, or a double candle close on the daily chart above 7420.2 confirms the break to the upside, which opens the door to 7527.7. If further upside momentum persists, a break of 7527.7 clears the way for a test of the channel’s upper border.
On the flip side, a price rejection at 7420.2 opens the door for a retest of 7246.4. Supporting this move is the apparent divergence which has started to form between the DeMarker oscillator and the price highs at 7420.2. If price is able to continue its downward trajectory and it breaks 7246.4, then there is a chance that it will push to the support located at 7127.2. A further break of 7127.2 targets the lower channel border and 7006.3 (Aug 25 and Oct 3 lows) below it.
Bulls would be waiting for an upside break of 7420.2 for resumption of the uptrend.
Bears would now have to look for a dip back to 7246.4 to target 7127.2,7006.3 and 6739.0.
Prices to watch: 7420.2 (bulls) and 7246.4 (bears).
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