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This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.

Jumping back in the saddle

Sell in May, go away, and come back on St Leger’s Day. Everyone’s heard that old corny adage. Well, guess what, St Leger Stakes horse-race is just around the corner. Next Saturday, 15 September, to be precise. So, is this the best time to come back and trade?

So, you’ve spent the warm months lying on the beach, thinking you ought to wait out the supposedly moribund summer quarter doing some R&R? Well, not so fast! In fact, this summer has been anything but quiet. UK 100 benchmark index reached all-time record highs of 7904 in May, but has since lost close to 600 points. Mind you, that’s barely a 7% move to the downside, but boy have we seen some massive moves this summer on individual equities.

Miners have been hit especially hard this year due to persistent worries over US-China and US-EU trade tariffs and the strengthening dollar (as commodities are priced in USD, stronger greenback is a big no-no for UK Index ’s metals and mining shares). KAZ Minerals has been a particularly big faller, shedding close to 55% of its share price since the beginning of summer, exposing a lot of good value that can potentially be squeezed out of a bounce back from the low (KAZ just +2% from 2018 bottom, potentially benefiting bargain hunters going into Autumn).

And if big fallers are not your thing, how about the persistent positive momentum on stocks like AstraZeneca (+24% bounce from 2018 lows), NMC Health (28% bounce) or Hikma Pharmaceuticals (+137% bounce)? The idea behind momentum stocks is simple. Either you wait for these shares to run their course, get into “overvalued” territory and then sell them short (benefiting from a downward correction to “fair value”), or you buy them high and ride the momentum to sell even higher.

Which of them is which? Well, that’s where the research comes in. Here at Accendo Markets we have our own award-winning in-house Research team that has access to all the latest broker comments and can provide you with all the analytical breakdown you could desire. Support and resistance levels, technical indicators, watch levels, risk/reward calculations, financial analysis of latest corporate results. Whatever you need to empower your trading strategy and take you to the next level.

In any case, the summer is in the past, so what awaits us next week, come St Leger’s day? As I already mentioned, volatility never really went away, but there is a lot to be excited about with regards to potentially big markets moves on the UK Index .

Will Donald Trump finally impose new 25% tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese imported goods after the mandatory public consultation period is now over? If he does, a lot of UK Index stocks exposed to global trade flows could suffer, opening up multiple bargain opportunities the same day (same hour!) the news hits the wires.

Will all of them fall? Or could steelmaker Evraz be an exception due to its extensive presence in the United States (7 steel mills in US and Canada). Evraz shares are already +43% since the beginning of the year and the company is paying 14% forward dividend yield (the highest of any company on the UK 100 ). Is there be a tradable opportunity in the works here in case new tariffs are activated?

This is part and parcel of what I do here at Accendo Markets. Not just looking at bare-naked numbers or quoting empty statistics, but giving you, the client, a trade opportunity that is in play right now. A real edge to your arsenal of trading tools. And with the summer vacation coming to a close, perhaps it’s finally time to get back in the saddle.

Did you see any recent opportunity that I didn’t mention above? If something peaked your interest, but you aren’t quite sure, give me a call and I can help you transform an idea into a real trade. Not by giving “hot tips”, but by educating you and helping you think like a trader. Interested? Taking the first step is easy, just click here to begin your journey and access our Research and Trade ideas.

Mark Crouch, Trader at Accendo Markets, 7 September 2018

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.


Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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