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Index Focus – 11 Aug - 11 August 2015

UK 100 back below 6700 having failed again at 6750. DAX down, but found support at yesterday’s 11430 lows. Dow Jones back from 17600 hindered by falling highs from mid-July. Gold seeing a new lease of life, with breakouts above both $1100 and falling highs from mid-June.

European equities on the back foot this morning in reaction to China’s currency devaluation and despite proximity to a Greek bailout deal. While markets normally welcome any form of China stimulus with open arms, today’s move in the wake of truly awful weekend trade data is being interpreted as admission of growth slowing by even more than those rather questionable official statistics are to have us believe.

While a third Greek bailout deal may be very close, some finer details remain and realism has us point to how easily we’ve seen small details become major sticking points, leading to delays which markets don’t want to see now with a 20 Aug ECB debt deadline looming and a battered banking sector needing swift recapitalization. If debt sustainability/relief is one of those details, there is likely still work still to do.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index rally back above falling highs at 6,750? or;
  2. Will the index breakdown towards rising support at 6,550?

UK 100  remains troubled by combo of seemingly impenetrable 2-month falling resistance at 6750 and the 200-day MA at 6774. Potential for correction to 9-month rising support at 6550, with interim support at 6650.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Sideways
  • Potential support: 6650, 6550
  • Potential resistance: 6700, 6750

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index break out above falling highs at 11,600? or;
  2. Will the index fall back towards lows of 11,020?

Germany’s DAX also struggling with falling highs at 11600, however, this mornings weakness held up at yesterday’s lows 11,430 keeping uptrend from 8 July alive. Still in multi-month shallow falling trend.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 11430, 11350, 11000
  • Potential resistance: 11600, 11670, 11800

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index rally back towards highs 18,100? or;
  2. Will the index fall back towards lows of 17,300?

US Dow Jones made breakout above trendline of falling highs from 20-July, but yet to make a higher high >17600. Potential for recovery towards best levels in a month before being scuppered by 200-day MA, but work to do. Still in shallow downtrend from Feb.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Downtrend
  • Potential support: 17500, 17450, 17300
  • Potential resistance: 17630, 17800, 17900

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

Where next?
  1. Will Gold rally back towards falling at $1165? or;
  2. Will Gold fall back towards rising lows at $1085?

Gold has finally delivered the breakout we have been looking for, getting above the recent $1095 ceiling, then bettering the round number $1100 before spiking to test falling highs from mid-June at $1110. This new lease of life and renewed interest could see  a recovery towards 7-month falling highs at $1165.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Downtrend, recovery
  • Potential support: 1110, 1100, 1095
  • Potential resistance: 1120, 1130, 1140

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

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