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Index Focus - 25 April 2016

Equity markets have made a poor start to the week, still struggling to hold onto recent gains as bullish sentiment wanes and profit-taking continues ahead of central bank updates from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. While the former is likely to hold pat the latter has hinted at cranking up policy easing a notch. Dollar-denominated commodities prices (notably oil, as per usual) continue to vacate last week’s recovery highs with risk appetite hindered by a USD bounce that can be pinned on ECB President Draghi weakening the EUR. Jitters about China’s debt load simmer on while US corporate results fail to inspire. Markets  also await key GDP updates from the UK, US and EZ for fresh evidence about the global growth picture.

UK 100  sell-off found support at last Monday’s 6260 lows. DAX30 bounced at 10230 to keep April uptrend alive. Wall Street/Dow futures rebounded off 17900. Bullish double-bottom? Gold broke below $1245 as we suggested last week with a bearish head & shoulders top formation. Bearish flag next?

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Where next?
  1. Will the index fall towards lows of 6070? or;
  2. Will the index rise towards highs of 6420?

UK 100  sell-off found support at last Monday’s lows of 6260. Feb and April uptrends being undone, or just a consolidatory correction before resumption of the rally?

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 6260, 6220, 6175
  • Potential resistance: 6290, 6300, 6325

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index fall towards lows of 9450?  or;
  2. Will the index rise towards highs of 10530?

The DAX has managed to engineer a bounce off 10230 to keep April’s uptrend alive. Can it get back above 10300? The Fed uptrend intact until any breach of 9800.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 10230, 10200, 10150
  • Potential resistance: 10300, 10320, 10350

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

Where next?
  1. Will the index fall towards lows of 17750? or;
  2. Will the index rise towards highs of 18170?

The Dow Jones could be on for a bullish double-bottom if it can get back to 18000 and break the trend of falling highs from last week. Bears must live with likely support at each of the pause levels we had on the way up in April.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 17950, 17900, 17860, 17830
  • Potential resistance: 17985, 18000, 18020, 18035

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

Where next?
  1. Will Gold fall towards lows of $1210? or;
  2. Will Gold rise towards highs of $1270?

Gold broke below $1245 via the bearish 4-day Head & Shoulders top pattern w highlighted on Friday. Could a bearish flag pattern seal its completion down to $1217 and break the April uptrend?

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 1230, 1227, 1225
  • Potential resistance: 1232, 1235, 1236

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

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