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Major Support & Resistance (pivot points – explained):
Pivot Point: 6495; Support 1, 2 & 3: 6472, 6456, 6433, ; Resistance 1, 2 & 3: 6511, 6534, 6551
Support around 6480 backs up potential for rising 5-month support to hold. The sideways move through 6500 also increases the possibility of getting back into the 5-week falling channel, opening up the possibility of a revival of the uptrend. A hat-trick with the daily chart also showing price action potentially coinciding with momentum closing on on October lows and longer-term rising support. No reversal yet, but some good signs after a 5.2% correction.
Shorter-term graphs, however, show 6520 as a key hurdle, which may remain so until this afternoon’s US Jobs update spices markets up, before a potentially clear run back up to 6600. Downside remains to 6480 rising lows. Watch levels for today: 6480 support and 6520 resistance.
On the subject of US Jobs report and tapering, after US GDP yesterday we are even more confident that QE3 tapering will be delivered late in Q1 (post Yellen’s arrival) rather than as a Humbug early Christmas present.
Yes November US ADP was very strong on Wednesday and with a big upward revision for October. And Yes there is potential for US NFP to be solid and with a drop in employment rate. However, participation rates remain questionable, GDP growth has been flattered by inventory builds, and the Fed is looking at many different reads across the economy, not just job adds.
We believe the Fed FOMC will still want to see underlying GDP growth (ex-stock building) improving more – as jobs appear to be – rather than slowing up (down from 2.1% in Q2, to 2% for 1st Q3 Est and 1.9% for 2nd Q3 Est) before it tapers. And with all the inventory build in Q2 and Q3, Q4 could well to see this reverse, exposing weaker underlying growth. The biggest financial jigsaw puzzle ever continues to miss those key corner pieces.
Solid Green line
Possible support
Solid Red line
Possible resistance
Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.
Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals
Solid Green line
Possible support
Solid Red line
Possible resistance
Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.
Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals
Solid Green line
Possible support
Solid Red line
Possible resistance
Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.
Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals
Solid Green line
Possible support
Solid Red line
Possible resistance
Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.
Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals
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