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Index Focus - 15 February 2016

Equity markets making a bullish start to the week, adding to the gains of Friday and Thursday’s bounce from lows helped by breaks of the February downtrends. And it would appear to be a case of bad news is good news again. This after poor data from China (Exports, Imports) and Japan (GDP, Industrial Production) added to hopes of more central bank intervention and stimulus which buoyed commodities prices. Add to this a continued waning of worries over the banking sector (despite many a headwind remaining) thanks to talk of the ECB  buying bundles of bad loans from Italian banks and many are asking if we have found a bottom. Note Draghi speaking this afternoon. More soothing words before the March policy update?

UK Index  holding above 5800 after strong 6% bounce from 5500. DAX 6% rebound already found resistance at 9235, which could now be support-turned-resistance. Wall Street gains slowing up around 16150, after 4% bounce from lows. Gold in continued retreat from recent recovery highs, broken below rising 8-day support $1210 as risk appetite returns to markets.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index rally towards highs of 5950, or;
  2. Will the index fall towards lows of 5500?

UK 100 holding above 5800 rising support from Friday lows 5570. Break beyond Feb falling highs is significant but upside likely capped at 6000 – the ceiling of the index’s 4-month falling channel.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 5800, 5790, 5780, 5750
  • Potential resistance: 5815, 5825, 5837

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index rally towards highs of 10100? or;
  2. Will the index fall towards lows of 8700?

DAX rebound already found resistance at prior breached support level 9245. Progress made in breaking out from Feb downtrend, but like UK Index , still facing longer-term falling resistance from end-Dec and Nov.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Downtrend
  • Potential support: 9180, 9150, 9130, 9100
  • Potential resistance: 9215, 9235, 9335

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index rise towards highs of 16500, or;
  2. Will the index fall towards lows of 15550?

US Dow Jones gains looks to have slowed up as it approaches recent 16200 highs. Index still sideways in defined range, but a second bounce from 15500 means potential for a double-bottom pattern to deliver 1000pt gains if we can break beyond Feb highs 16500.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Sideways
  • Potential support: 16100, 16085, 6050
  • Potential resistance: 16160, 16170, 16200

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

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Where next?
  1. Will Gold rise towards highs of $1263? or;
  2. Will Gold retrace towards lows of $1120?

Gold’s retreat from recovery highs has accelerated as risk appetite returns to the markets and Gold bugs take profits. Likely some profit taking from those who called the $1050 bottom and are seeing gains eroded.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 1205, 1200, 1195, 1190
  • Potential resistance: 1210, 1220, 1232, 1240

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

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