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UK Index excitement, but not where you’d expect

It’s no surprise to see the likes of Randgold Resources and Fresnillo among the best performers this week, up 5%. Nor to see Rio Tinto and Glencore down 5%. Not when two of the world’s more unpredictable leaders are trading insults and nuclear threats. However, this wasn’t the only story in town this week.

There was plenty more going on within the UK Index , and some even bigger moves on offer, highlighting how, 1) markets have developed a thick skin (UK Index down only 3.3% from high) and, 2) how corporate results can deliver even bigger share price moves than the threat of nuclear conflict. Who’d have thought it?!

Gold and silver prices understandably rallied amid increased demand for the finite safe haven metals, benefiting their aforementioned Miners. It also makes sense for base metal prices like copper and iron ore to have dropped, hurting those whose job it is to get those raw materials out of the ground. After all, if global demand goes on hold due to conflict…… Oil prices also reversed their recent rally amid fresh uncertainty about global demand and weak compliance of OPEC agreed output cuts.

However, concentrating on only the Miners/Raw Materials space – admittedly an important barometer of global risk appetite – would be doing an injustice to the likes of Coca Cola HBC and Worldpay up a whopping 8.5% and 11.7%, respectively. Not to mention this week’s biggest losers, G4S, Paddy Power Betfair and InterContinental Hotels, all losing 8-10% on results.

So yes, there may have been much excitement among the traditional risk assets of Banks and Miners, but as is often the case, looking away from the crowd can also deliver better returns.

G4S (GFS) tanked after investors balked at waning revenue growth in key emerging markets and interpreted an unchanged interim dividend despite higher profits as caution on the outlook. Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) posted higher earnings, but still shy of what it pre-released the day prior when it disclosed that its veteran CEO was stepping down. Shareholders are questioning whether he is calling the top of the gambling market. Lastly, InterContinental Hotels (IHG) suffered from an unwelcome decline in average revenue growth per available room (RevPAR) overshadowing a rise in first half profits.

At the top end, however, Coca Cola HBC (CCH) rallied to fresh record highs. Excellent first half results saw an acceleration in Q2 volume growth thanks to good weather helping revenues rise. Worldpay (WPG) investors welcomed good first half results and confirmation of their $10bn merger with Vantiv, taking the shares 3% above the 385p offer price. The deal should complete early next year.

So we have had excitement from all corners of the UK Index this week. Amongst the retail investors favourites but also among some of the less popular names. A lesson to be had, with the bigger moves coming from the latter, showing that outperformance can be had so long as you are prepared to look for it.

The above analysis is typical of what you can expect daily from Accendo Markets. If not already receiving such insight you might well ask yourself why? Get access to our research now to see for yourself the wealth of information, observations and trade ideas you have been missing out on for so long. We’re sure you won’t be disappointed. But there are no refunds. Because it’s free to all clients.

Enjoy your weekend,

Mike van Dulken, Head of Research, 11 Aug 17

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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