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Ferguson: Special div heats up demand

Shares in Heating and Plumbing supplier Ferguson top the UK Index this morning after H1 results, driven by strong US residential markets, were accompanied by welcome confirmation of a $1bn special dividend (circa 5%) to be paid with proceeds of its sale of Nordic building materials distributor Stark. Whilst the former maintains the positive corporate message that took shares to Jan’s mid-month peak, the latter boosts cash returns to a very healthy circa 7.5%, making it difficult to ignore for those hunting the combination of solid, growing UK Index businesses with attractive yields.

Nit-pickers might point to H1 organic growth of 7.4% implying a slowing to 7.3% in Q2 versus 7.6% in Q1, perhaps attributable to some minor seasonality. On the flip-side, FX benefits have risen (reports in USD, not GBP), taking ongoing revenue growth from 10% in Q1 to 10.3% in H1 (9% once FX benefits stripped out), implying acceleration to 10.6% in Q2. More importantly, growth in ongoing trading profit accelerated to +15% in H1 (14.4% ex-FX) versus 13.9% in Q1, implying something akin to 16% in Q2, and thus handsome margin expansion, even if exceptionals halved growth in pre-tax profits (7.6%).

Today’s share price reaction is thus understandable, driven by the aggregate of returns and outlook, with confirmation of that chunky special dividend ($1bn, or $4 per share, offset by a share price consolidation to avoid an ugly drop and gap on the chart), continuation of the ongoing $650m share buyback programme (50% complete; helped flatter EPS growth to 16.6%), another 10% hike for the interim dividend (same as last year) and management’s confidence in meeting broker FY consensus (despite H2 having tougher comparables; US strength/Canadian health offsetting a challenging UK).

A tidy set of results, a chunky return of capital and management in the luxurious position to be being able to talk of more positives than negatives. Shares trade close to highs of the day, with a solid break above March highs, and recently troublesome 50/100-day moving averages, to trade their best since early Feb. Long term uptrend intact, bulls looking for not just the 5% special div, but a similar 5% rally back to Jan’s best since summer 2007.

Mike van Dulken, Head of Research, 27 Mar 2018

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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