This week’s latest Brexit poll swinging towards ‘Leave’ was a shock for the UK 100 , with increased geopolitical risk that the UK leaves the EU. We still believe ‘Remain’ will prevail, and the bookies’ agree, but such a shift in just two weeks suggests you can no longer afford to be complacent.

The latest poll was a surprise (55:45 for Leave) but will be one of the many we see over the next three weeks until June 23. The average still has ‘Remain’ in the lead. And the bookies suggest it’s still a done deal (70-80%). And the bookies got it right for the Scottish referendum, forecasting a clear loss by Independence versus tight polls. However, don’t forget  they and the pollsters both got it wrong in last year’s UK General Election. So perhaps we should beware divergent messages from polls and odds.

Early betting and odds may derive from those more politically minded and wealthy (‘Remainers’). A late betting splurge, however, could be John Smith taking a view as scare-mongering ramps up, even if he couldn’t give a monkeys about politics (tired of broken promises; possibly not even registered to actually vote) but happy taking a Grand National style punt. He may be more ‘Leave’-oriented. And so any subsequent shift in bookies’ odds such as we have just seen in the polls could suggest a ‘Stay’ of ExecUtion is not quite the done deal we thought.

And my point here is that you can no longer afford to sit back, complacent that the UK won’t dare vote to cut its ties with Europe. Your investments could be at significant risk. What are your plans? Will you sit tight and take a gamble that the UK electorate votes for the status quo and your holdings benefit from a relief rally? Have you considered how you might hedge your positions to mitigate share price declines in the case of a surprise Leave vote being delivered? Have you thought about how to profit from the outcome? This is what Accendo is helping its clients with TODAY! Not waiting for the result.

For those saying ‘I’ll wait and see’ note renowned investor Ken Fisher in the FT recently highlighting that this approach rarely pays off as markets increasingly price in the looming result. Hoping to jump on a sustained Remain relief rally come June 24 is likely wishful thinking. Look how stocks had been rallying into end-May as savvy investors looked to get an early-mover advantage on polls.

If anything, current uncertainty is a signal for investors to act now, not wait. Whichever way they want to trade; Long or Short. If you wait for clarity, it’s already too late. Don’t underestimate how far and fast markets can move in the run-up. Fear also tends to be baked in, hence merely flat performance by the UK Index so far this year. So hoping for a ‘Short’ disaster trade may also be slim. Whatever, the time to act is amid the doom and gloom warnings from politicians on both sides of the Brexit argument. Not after.

If like many you hold shares in financials, the sector is highly likely to see big share price moves over the next few weeks; more so than we saw this week. The sector could suffer if a Leave vote prevails with uncertainty as to how banks will operate with continental peers. If you would like a list of the other stocks and sectors sensitive to the Brexit vote, and to stay abreast of our highly respected analysis, then you need to access our research now. Be sure you are correctly positioned in advance of the vote. Waiting could leave you wanting.

Ben Vartia, Trader, 3 Jun