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Betting on a rebound

Racing for gloryCheltenham racing festival has been in full swing all week. Many of my clients are curious how their favourite UK Index -listed bookmaker has been faring on the stock market.

The horse racing extravaganza has been a godsent for the bookmaker shares. All the big bookies are off their lows after falling sharply earlier this month. Some of the drops were pretty spectacular, as much as 27% in one week. But is this game on for UK Index gambling shares? Is it time to up the stakes?

There have been many falls, but also plenty of rebounds. GVC shares fell 27% between 6 and 14 March after both the CEO and Chairman sold close to £20m of stock. For investors, this signalled uncertainty in the company’s prospects. Hence the sell-off. GVC shares touched June 2016 lows this week and bounced as much as 4.7%.

UK Index  bookmaker sharesWilliam Hill shares also struggled. A 21% drop in the first 2 weeks of March, followed by a 4.3% bounce back from December lows. The bookie reported a 2018 net loss and cut its dividend by 9%. A silver lining from a dark cloud was that it didn’t cut its 2019 targets. Investors assumed this meant that the worst is behind them.

Of the trio, Paddy Power’s shares were thr most exciting. Down 15% late last week, ther rebounded 7%, fell another 4%, and have since bounced 6%. And the rebound is still going. Paddy has already retraced 60% of the intial drop, in less than 10 days. Can it continue?

So, you’ve had a cheeky bet on the gee-gees. You’ve seen how much the bookies take from those big races. Ever wondered if this gets reflected in the share price? We know that bookies tend to do well during big sporting events. Think the FIFA World Cup, the Ryder Cup, the Ashes.

Some retail investors simply watched the recent share price declines like GVC (-27%) or William Hill (-21%) and traded a rebound that coincided with the start of the Cheltenham festival.

Others went a step further. Paddy shares traded up and down several times, offering more adventurous traders several bounces and sell-offs. Buy low, sell high. Then sell short again.

Paddy shares are trading a mini rising range since last week. This is one of many tradable opportunities on offer, so long as you can time the turns at the top and bottom.

Perhaps you don’t have the time to watch all the charts, and monitor key trends. This is where Accendo Markets comes in. If you like trading fallers or ranges, we highlight the best opportunities. We let you know when shares are oversold, primed for a bounce, or trading attractive patterns.

Trading the UK Index Bookmakers needn’t feel like a punt on a fillie. Accendo’s award-winning research  is there to give you confidence of hand-picked trading opportunities. Click here for our Gold Pass research.

Horses for courses, they say. Make sure you are riding a winner.

Josh Phipps, Trader, 15 March 2019

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.


Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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