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Battle of the Banks || 14-02-20

Banking giant Barclays revealed strong full year results this week, but the news was overshadowed by the revelation that its Chief Executive Jes Staley is facing a regulatory probe in relation to his links with disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein.

The news caused Barclays share price to tumble 2.5 per cent, now standing at 176.32p at the time of writing, despite revealing a revenue rise of two per cent in 2019 to £21.6 bn which was slightly above market expectations. Pre-tax profit rose nine per cent to £6.2 bn and the bank’s return on tangible equity was nine per cent, also above expectations.

The regulatory probe has cast a shadow on the results though – Staley is cooperating with regulatory bodies over his relationship with Epstein but it does potentially tarnish the bank’s reputation especially in light of the news that Staley’s pay packet jumped from £3.36 million to £5.9 million for the year.

Analysts were cautiously optimistic about the bank’s results though – Hargreaves Lansdowne pointed out that cost control is improving substantially. Barclays has taken action to reduce its exposure to higher risk unsecured loans, and bad loans fell 14 per cent year-on year to £712m, reflecting a £100m allowance made last year due to economic uncertainty.

Hargreaves Lansdowne did highlight concerns about the bank’s strategy of lowering savings interest rates in an increasingly competitive marketplace though and pointed out the risks to profitability in mortgage rate cuts. Overall, however it looks like a strong set of results for Barclays although only time will tell about the long-term impact of the Staley regulatory probe.

It’s not such good news for rival Lloyds, whose share price has slumped by 22 per cent since December now standing at 57.31p at the time of writing.

Shares in the banking group rallied after the election results in December but weeks of bad press look to have sent them plummeting again. Lloyds failed the Bank of England’s stress test in December and it has also come under scrutiny for allegedly mistreating victims of fraud, with a review finding its compensation scheme for victims had ‘serious shortcomings.’

So, what does the future hold for Lloyds’ share price – could it bounce back in to the black in 2020?

Lloyds has seen a dip in profits and performance in the past few months – in October it reported a 97 per cent fall in pre-tax profit for the third quarter from last year. Its third quarter results were battered by a £1.8 billion payment protection pay out and Brexit unease has taken its toll, as with all British banks, but particularly Lloyds Due to its UK market focus.

Opinions from analysts are divided though – while Credit Suisse issued a target price of 60p, Jefferies went for a ‘buy rating’ with a target price of 78p.

Some have pointed out that with a price to earnings ratio of around 8.5, Lloyds could still be worth a chance – much of its future might be determined by how well EU negotiations go and how they play out remains to be seen.

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