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Banks prepare for the September surge

The rather quiet state of affairs over the course of the summer has resulted in a particularly major casualty. However, with the beginning of September less than 14 days away, will the old adage ‘Sell in May and return on St. Ledgers day’ ring true this year and save the sector?

From my point of view, we’ve already seen the beginning of the ‘September surge’ as the banks today react to the plethora of global events driving markets. Lloyds (LLOY), one of the most traded stocks on the UK 100 , touched a fresh 4 month low of 63.6p, while peer Barclays (BARC) traded a new 2017 low of 193.3p.

However, could the sell-off be overdone? Lloyds is trading at a 13% discount from its 2017 highs, while Barclays is a whopping 20% cheaper than it was back in February. Even HSBC (HSBA), having traded a fresh all time high only three weeks ago, is 5% from its highs!

Furthermore, approaching a time when those following the ‘sell in May’ prophecy return to their desks to evaluate the summer’s events, could seeing these cornerstones of the UK economy at multi-month lows could provide the impetus for fresh sector strength?

And there’s plenty on the horizon for holders of the banks to get excited about.

Having not heard a peep from PM Theresa May or the Brexit team for some time, we finally look forward to some much needed clarity on Brexit proceedings. With the UK now expected to play fair with the EU, could we see some reciprocal niceties from the EU in the form of a lengthy transition period for financial institutions?

Also worth bearing in mind are global central banks. Having enjoyed their length summer breaks, we finally expect some meaningful decisions being made by both the ECB and the US Federal Reserve. Will addressing the issue of quantitative easing, providing some much-needed hawkishness back into markets, push the banks higher?

Many may point to the case being put forward against some British banks over the Libor rigging scandal by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp as a potential blip on the radar. This could be particularly interesting should they agree a settlement before reaching court. What could the potential implications be? Will they escape another huge fine just after reaching the conclusion of the PPI scandal? Might shares fall further to offer an even greater discount?

Finally, what effect can US President Trump have on the global stocks as the North Korean problem continues, while the advisor to emerge victor of the battle inside the White House could provide an idea of what policies may be pursued by the administration.

At a time where there is an abundance of news and you need concise yet complete information at your disposal, you need to make sure your sources are not only reliable but timely. To make sure you’re kept abreast of the latest news affecting the Banking sector, sign up here to receive our award-winning research offering or contact me directly on 0203 051 7418 for up-to-date notifications on market moves.

Aymen Azizi, Trader, 18 August

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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