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Aston Martin to report inaugural post-IPO results

When Aston Martin first sold shares to investors in early October, hopes were high for the first British carmaker to IPO in over 30 years. Sceptical investors, however, had other plans for the shares, which floated at the bottom of its proposed share price range and went on a downward slide through most of October. Is the glitz and glamour of James Bond’s favourite card all an illusion, its luster faded in the harsh reality of financial markets?

Aston Martin shares are now off their worst late-October levels and have actually enjoyed something of a comeback in November (+18.6% in less than 3 weeks). The true test for the marque carmaker, howerver, will be this Thursday, 15 Nov, when its inagural set of post-IPO financial results will come under scrutiny by financial markets.

In terms of trading opportunities, results days reactions can produce big share price moves. In preparation, we look for three things. Firstly, broker consensus; what are the analysts looking for in terms of revenues and profits. This is our benchmark for whether results beat or miss expectations.

Secondly, what happened to the share price last time the company report. Did they shares rally strongly, did they drop, or do little to nothing. This can give an idea of the volatility that could be potentially replicated.

Thirdly, what are the expectations for the full year in terms of revenue and profits (both absolute and in terms of growth). Why? Because you want to know whether that guidance still stands following the latest set of results. Any deviation could send the share price sharply higher or lower.

The issue with Aston Martin is that this is a freshly-IPOd company. It has no track record of reporting financial results to the markets or accompanying share price reactions.

So, how should traders approach a situation like this? Logically, there are 3 options for how the shares could react on the results day:

  • Results are in-line with market expectations. Nothing extraordinary happens, all the financials fail to move sentiment or are already priced-in by the market. The shares do little all day.
  • Results beat market expectations. Let’s say that Aston Martin reports much better than expected Q3 results, potentially even upgrades its FY production and/or financial targets. Shares jump at the 8am market open and trade higher through the day, maybe pulling back slightly from the highs as traders take their profits, but generally end the day on a high note.
  • Results miss consensus. The opposite possibility is that results are much worse than broker forecasts, they issue a profits warnings or urge caution about the trading environment. In this case, the shares are likely to drop at the open and, potentially, go even lower as the market digests the disappointing news.

For those who own Aston Martin shares over the long-term, the last option might seem like a disaster, but for short-term traders, any result that generates a big share price move presents an exciting trading opportunity. And two out of three sounds like pretty decent odds.

Either results miss and investors are looking for the shares to rebound from oversold, OR results beat and traders hop on the positive momentum as the shares go back to October’s post-IPO highs. Either way, an unmissable opportunity.

Some traders might even combine the two strategies by waiting for the Aston Martin shares to rise a bit, sell the shares short and wait for the potential pull back as the traders take their profits and the share price retreats. Going short is not for everyone, but it is an option

Lots of potential opportunities are available, as long as you focus on the share price volatility (big market moves) and don’t hold directional bias. Up or down, even sideways, all can offer trading opportunities.

Here at Accendo Markets, we get access to broker previews for companies reporting results ahead of time. We keep our clients informed every morning with an in-depth pre-market analysis of the results and their impact on the share price, and with personal intra-day calls to make sure investors are aware how their portfolio is faring.

If you’d like to keep your hand on the pulse of the market ahead of the upcoming Aston Martin results, you can receive our Morning Report publication by clicking here to receive our Research and daily Trading Opportunities directly into your inbox.

Artjom Hatsaturjants, Research Analyst, 12 November 2018

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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