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Home / Trade Alert / Buy – Fresnillo

This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.

Buy – Fresnillo - 20 June 2018

Trade Parameters

  • Opening Price: 1170p
  • Stop Loss: 1130p (40p/3.4% below)
  • Profit Limit: 1330p (160p/13.7% above)
  • Reward vs Risk: 4.0x
  • CFD Margin: 5%

Observations – For

  • 2 day bounce; bullish reversal?
  • Stochastics oversold; RSI turning up from oversold
  • Momentum bottomed out
  • Directional Indicators converging bullishly

Observations – Against

  • Moving average resistance around 1250p?
  • No bullish reversal on Point & Figure chart
  • No bullish cross by directional indicators
  • Momentum still negative

Analyst Comments

After a 16% sell-off from May’s peak, there is potential for the shares to recover thanks to bargain hunting of oversold shares. On 30 May, FRES said Silver & Gold production was on target, helping the shares to multi-month highs. GBP weakness can help the shares.

Gold and Silver are investor safehavens so a strong market rally, with appetite for risk that results in safe-havens being shunned, could see FRES shares suffer. The company’s 2.2% forward dividend yield is well below the best on off from the UK 100 (~8%). A stronger USD can hurts metal prices

Consensus is bullish with 47% of brokers suggesting Buy, 53% advocating Hold and none saying Sell. Note that the consensus target price of 1454p is well beyond our short term objective or revisiting May highs. A share price bounce could encourage some of the many Neutrals to upgrade, giving the shares momentum, especially with  100% of broker price targets suggesting upside from current levels.

Next Event: Q2 Production Report, 25 Jul; H1 Results, 31 Jul

Latest Broker 12-Month Consensus: 47% Buy, 53% Hold, 8% Sell (full breakdown on request)

Source: DowJones Newswires, Reuters News, Bloomberg  or Company Press releases

10-month (daily): Stochastics, MACD, ADX (Trend strength), RSI and Momentum

Share 1wk 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr
Perf % -2.1 -8.0 -1.3 -11.6 -23.7 -4.5 64.5 40.4 12.2
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