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Index Focus - 9 May 2016

Equity markets on the rise as we start the new week although with risk appetite in check. Oil prices remain strong but not because of a perception of more demand, rather fears regarding disruption to Canadian supply. And a change in Saudi oil minister (OPEC mouthpiece) is also having to be digested. Weak China trade data over the weekend is sure to fan hopes of  more stimulus, but also puts into question its economic transition. In Europe, Germany’s DAX is outperforming as exporters enjoy a weaker EUR (derived from the US dollar’s continued rebound) and hopes of a positive Greek bailout review. Note defensive non-cyclicals topping the UK Index in terms of points contribution.

UK 100 back above 6160 after an early test to the downside. Can the April downtrend be overcome? DAX30 bounced back above 10000 keeping Feb uptrend and rising channel alive. Wall Street/Dow Jones futures may have broken out from an (imperfect) bullish flag pattern. Another 150pts up for grabs? Gold struggling under the weight of a stronger USD and profit taking from the Jan reversal and 25% rebound to revisit $1300.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index fall towards lows of 6055? or;
  2. Will the index rise towards highs of 6290?

UK 100 back above 6160 after an early brief test to the downside. A break above 6180 would be positive as our Morning Report suggested, to keep Friday’s rebound alive. Can recent highs of 6430 be revisited?

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 6160, 6130, 6100
  • Potential resistance: 6180, 6200, 6125

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index fall towards lows of 8700?  or;
  2. Will the index rise towards highs of 10500?

DAX bounce from May lows and its 100-day moving average is in full flow. The index is back above 10000 which keeps the February uptrend and rising channel alive and well. Strong USD and resulting weaker EUR is a boon for exporters.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 10000, 9960, 9920
  • Potential resistance: 10045, 10090, 10150

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index fall towards lows of 17500? or;
  2. Will the index rise towards highs of 18170?

The Dow Jones broken beyond falling highs from end-April which has revived bullish interest. So too has this morning’s breakout from a bullish flag pattern which could still have 150pts left to run. A break above 17800 would likely confirm. Back to the April highs?

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 17775, 17750, 17730
  • Potential resistance: 17800, 17850, 17900

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

Where next?
  1. Will Gold fall towards lows of $1080? or;
  2. Will Gold rise towards highs of $1305?

Gold still struggling under the weight of the USD rebound as well as profit taking following the 2016 24% rebound and revisit of $1300. Support at 1270? Or back to $1260 Jan rising lows?

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 1278, 1274, 1270
  • Potential resistance: 1280, 1285, 1295

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

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