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Index Focus - 4 February 2016

Equity markets in retreat from best levels, after USD weakness boosted risk appetite. This comes after USD resilience reversed to 3-month lows on poor US data and increased expectations the US Fed will adopt a less hawkish narrative combined with comments from ECB head Draghi this morning which drove the EUR to 3.5-month highs. While the weaker  USD is helping commodities and their related equities for a second day, after Oil’s strong bounce yesterday, the stronger EUR is hurting the DAX.

UK 100 back testing 5900 after yesterday’s 160pt bounce. DAX retreating through 9500 having encountered 3-week intersecting resistance at 9600. Wall St futures turned back from 16450 3-week ceiling. Gold made it all the way to test 12-month falling highs at $1146.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index rally towards 6125? or;
  2. Will the index fall below lows of 5790?

UK 100 backtracking through 5900 after 160pt bounce. Reversal uptrend from Jan lows still alive (just) via rising lows. Note, however, potential for resistance at 6000 as well as long-term falling highs around 6100.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 5890, 5850, 5790
  • Potential resistance: 5920, 5950, 6000

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index rally towards 9750? or;
  2. Will the index fall back to 9250?

DAX already retreated through 9600 on EUR strength with potential for full retrace to yesterday’s lows. Still in uptrend from Jan lows (just), but long term downtrend unabated.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Sideways
  • Potential support: 9450, 9400, 9650
  • Potential resistance: 9500, 9550, 9625

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

Where next?
  1. Will the index rise towards 16600, or;
  2. Will the index fall towards 15450?

US Dow Jones bumped it its head again on the 16450 ceiling, checking the uptrend and strong bounce from 16000. Uptrend from Jan lows alive and well.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 16365, 16325, 16270
  • Potential resistance: 16425, 16450, 16500

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

Where next?
  1. Will Gold break out above $1300? or;
  2. Will Gold break down towards lows of $1050?

Gold’s reversal continues, with the safehaven now testing long-term falling highs around $1145. Despite equities going risk-on, commodities getting a boost from weaker USD. However, RSI suggests overbought.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 1145, 1140, 1135
  • Potential resistance: 1150, 1160, 1180

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

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