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Sell – Associated British Foods (ABF) - 15 July 2015

Opening Price Stop Loss Profit Limit Reward vs Risk CFD Margin
3129p 3240p (111p/3.5% above) 2900p (229p/7.3% below) 2.1x 5%

Observations – For

  • Shares hit resistance near 2015 highs
  • Stochastics peaked at over bought
  • RSI plateaued near over bought

Observations – Against

  • Long term uptrend since Aug 2011
  • Golden cross by 50- and 200-day MA
  • Momentum still positive

Analyst Comments

While the long term uptrend is intact, we expect a short term re-tracement to support at rising lows, driven by uncertainty regarding potential currency effects (weaker Euro, stronger Dollar) on profits as ABF rolls out plans to open Primark stores abroad.

Greek worries likely to continue to weigh on the currency’s strength in the short- and on into the medium-term as well as European indices themselves, giving a short position better profit potential in current economic climate.

Next Event: Pre-close trading update, 7 Sept.  Source: DowJones Newswires, Reuters News, Boomberg, Company website

Latest Broker 12-Month Consensus:  52% Buy, 37% Hold, 11% x Sell

13 July, Barclays, overweight, TP 3000p; 9 Jul, Credit Suisse, Outperform, 3250p; JPMorgan, Overweight, TP 3400p; Jefferies, Hold, TP 2850p; Bernstein, Market Perform, TP 2800p; Canaccord, Sell, TP 2580p; Nomura, Neutral, TP 2815p; Numis, Reduce, TP 2598p; Panmure Gordon, Sell, TP 2630p; Exane BNP, Outperform, TP 3500; Liberum, Buy, TP 3340p; 6 Jul, Goldman sachs, Buy/Cautious, TP 3150p.


(Source: Bloomberg) (U = Upgrade / D = Downgrade)

Broker Ratings & 12-Month Target Prices (Bloomberg)

12-month (daily) – MACD, Stochastics, Directional Indicators, RSI, Momentum

Share 1wk 1m 3m 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr
Perf % 6.6 3.7 5.8 7.9 64.7 142.4 187.5 195.9
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