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Morning Report

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Admiral Group PLC 1526 107 7.5 29.98
Randgold Resources Ltd 5050 169 3.5 -1.75
RSA Insurance Group PLC 97.8 1.9 2.0 -18.3
British American Tobacco PLC 3325 38.5 1.2 63.63
Anglo American PLC 1520 17.5 1.2 -45.12
Antofagasta PLC 911.5 9 1.0 -11.16
Centrica PLC 322.3 3.1 1.0 14.58
IMI PLC 1548 14 0.9 151.8
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Melrose Industries PLC 302.4 -25.5 -7.78 185.8
Meggitt PLC 486.6 -19.9 -3.93 78.9
Rio Tinto PLC 3269 -112.5 -3.33 -5.78
TUI Travel PLC 435.1 -14.9 -3.31 67.35
CRH PLC 1723 -54 -3.04 -1.13
Experian PLC 1071 -31 -2.81 73.16
Persimmon PLC 1433 -36 -2.45 210.4
BHP Billiton PLC 1883 -44 -2.28 -8.77
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,775.42 -48.35 -0.71 7.69
UK 16,614.30 -84.60 -0.51 22.57
FR CAC 40 4,391.25 -4.65 -0.11 21.14
DE DAX 30 9,542.02 -47.13 -0.49 25.82
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,360.20 -35.68 -0.22 17.86
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,357.97 6.00 0.14 39.17
US S&P 500 1,873.80 -0.10 -0.01 24.72
JP Nikkei 225 15,134.75 237.12 1.59 -7.10
HK Hang Seng Index 48 22,693.90 114.12 0.51 -2.63
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,445.89 -0.34 -0.01 1.75
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 0.141 -0.019 -11.88 -7.36
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 3.9862 -0.0011 -0.03 18.5
Gold ($/oz) 31.0809 0.0725 0.23 23.86
Silver ($/oz) 465.89 -5.055 -1.07 -17.03
Platinum ($/oz) 78.9266 -0.7836 -0.98 -7.76
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 147.58 0.86 1.17
EUR/USD – US$ per € 5221.09 -0.07 10.01
GBP/EUR – € per £ 361.77 0.79 -14.21
UK 100 called to open 15 points higher

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 08:00     UK          Halifax House Prices
  • 11:00     EU          German Factory Orders
  • 12:00     UK          BoE Rate Decision
  • 13:30     EU          Draghi Holds Press Conference
  • 13:30     US          Initial Jobless Claims
  • 15:00     US          Factory Orders

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +20 points at 6789 despite most traders’ attentions still on the tensions in Ukraine. The reshuffle in the UK’s flagship index has been confirmed, with Barratt Developments and St. James’s Place joining the UK 100 , replacing Amec and Tate & Lyle. It is no real surprise that Barratt’s has been promoted with the share price nearly doubling over the past year thanks to a buoyant property/construction market. Heritage Oil, Infinis Energy and Just Retirement Group entered the index, as Edinburgh Dragon Trust, Devro and Kenmare Resources were removed.

In the US, initial gains in the indices were reversed after the Fed’s Beige Book blamed the cold weather for the recent US slowdown and Ukraine risks continued to be reduced. The Dow Jones closed down 35 points at 16,360 whilst the S&P was flat at 1873 after hitting intra-day record highs once again.

Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly higher ahead of today’s ECB meeting and Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report. The Nikkei was up 237 points at 15,134, lifted by a weaker Yen and as Japan’s third largest mobile telecoms firm SoftBank gained almost 5%. The Hang Seng was up 114 points at 22,693

Results today: Aviva (AV.L) – Operating profit £2.05bn vs. £1.99bn expected, £60m loss on UK floods, new business up 13% to £835m, turnaround intensifying, still has issues to address, Final dividend of 9.4p p/sh. Aggreko (AGK.L) Revenue £1.57bn vs. £1.58bn, operating profit £357m vs. £386m, EPS 93.31p vs. 92.20p expected, “trading for the full year similar to 2013 levels”, “2014 encouraging so far”. Balfour Beatty (BBY.L) Pretax profit £32m vs. £147m, FY dividend 14.1p p/sh, operating profit £48m vs. £154m, revenues drop in line with order book, margins expected to be lower in 2014, improving conditions in US and UK markets. Schroders (SDR.L) Adjusted pretax profit £508m vs. £471m expected, net inflows £7.9bn vs. £9.4bn Y-o-Y, FY dividend 58p p/sh “2014 is likely to be more challenging for investors”

In focus today: BoE Asset purchase and Interest rate decision (widely expected to be unchanged) at 12:00 (GMT) ECB Interest rate decision at 12:45 (GMT) (possible revision expected) FED’s Dudley to speak at 13:15 (GMT) ECB President Mario Draghi speaking at 13:30 (GMT) US to release initial jobless and continuing claims at 13:30 (GMT) US to release factory orders at 15:00 (GMT) FED’s Lockhart to speak at 23:00 (GMT)

In commodities, gold continued to trade lower at $1338 as investors weighed the crisis in Ukraine against the outlook for US growth with weaker than expected ADP data. With $1350 still proving to be a difficult level to break all eyes will be focused on the Non-Farm data out tomorrow where ait is forecasted an increase to 146,000 despite the harsh weather conditions. WTI fell for the third day after hitting recent highs trading as low as $100.86 following US data showing distillate and crude stockpiles increasing which was a surprise to the market. Currently down 1.45 this week WTI is heading for its first weekly decline in eight weeks.

In FX the yen reached its lowest level in almost two weeks against the dollar after touching $102.76, after a Japanese government advisory panel said the world’s largest pension fund no longer needs to focus on domestic bonds given quickening inflation. Meanwhile the Aussie dollar climbed to its strongest levels in a week touching 90.16 US cents, following trade data that showed the January trade surplus widened to the most in 2 1/2 years and retail sales rose three times faster than economists forecast.

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Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • AUSSIE             Retail Sales                 BETTER
  • AUSSIE             Trade Balance             BETTER

See Live Macro calendar for all details

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Aviva CEO says turnaround to continue as profits rise
  • Unite FY adjusted NAV UP 9.1 pct
  • Unite to raise 100 mln stg in placing, share offer
  • Spirax Sarco full-year basic EPS rises 19 pct
  • Cineworld says full-year pretax profit 30.9 mln stg
  • IMI full-year revenue rises 3 pct
  • Vedanta appoints Tom Albanese CEO
  • Betfair sees year profit towards top of range
  • Balfour Beatty profit falls 32 pct due to weak UK construction
  • Schroders profits boosted by fund inflows
  • Shaftesbury proposes placing to fund London Chinatown buy
  • Miner Vedanta names ex-Rio Tinto boss Tom Albanese CEO
  • Iron ore miner London Mining agrees offtake with Cargill
  • DS Smith sees performance in line with its targets
  • Hunting misses on profit as weak North Sea, Canada bites
  • STV Group posts rise in full-year profit
  • EasyJet February passenger numbers up 2.9 pct
  • Imagination Tech says shipments hit by smartphone slowdown
  • Spirax-Sarco Engineering profit rises on Asian demand
  • Aggreko to return 200 mln stg to shareholders as profits fall
  • Genel Energy profit rises as oil production outlook improves
  • Cobham sees revenue decline in 2014 as profits fall
  • Engineer IMI’s profit rises on strong orders from petchem market
  • Avocet Mining dips into loss in 2013

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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