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Silver lining to cloudy Banking outlook

Analyst summary – 12 Feb 2016 Last week we wrote about handsome share price gains (10-35%) for many of the base metal miners (Anglo American, Glencore, Antofagasta) who benefited from a weaker US dollar (a boon for commodity prices) on fading expectations the US Fed could raise interest rates at all in 2016. Yay! Good…

The gold price today: From saucer to salad bowl

That hitherto slightly unreliable port in a storm, spot gold (XAU/USD), is looking that much lighter than its underlying physical commodity in February. But what’s supporting the gold price today is exactly what should have supported the gold price last August, when we briefly got a taster of the sort of equity market volatility that’s…

Rolls Royce: Bird strike averted

Shares in Rolls Royce (RR) have finally broken above 9-month falling highs to retest a 600p handle as markets reward CEO Warren East for the difficult decision to slash the FY dividend by a whopping 50%, well beyond expectations of 25%, joining commodity sector peers – quite rightly – in doing what’s necessary to ensure…

Rio Tinto (RIO): And……Cut!

Rio Tinto shares suffering from confirmation of commodity sector woes this morning. Shareholders are reacting unfavourably, maybe even a little unfairly, to a far from unexpected change to dividend policy after a 51% decline in FY earnings and a downbeat outlook – 2016 is set to be even tougher. Management ditching its progressive and currently generous…

Janet Yellen’s testimony – Labour market, Schlabour market

A not unusually muted reaction to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony this afternoon, given that she’s come out and said ‘financial conditions in the US have recently become less supportive of growth.’ It doesn’t take a 1st class physicist to recognise that this is essentially another way of saying ‘we raised interest rates before we…

ARM Holdings (ARM): It’s not about the numbers

ARM Holdings (ARM) shares have broken below the key 900p level as investors balk at a Q4 earnings report card that showed its chip architecture licensed for use 4bn times last year, pre-tax profits growth of 17% a fraction ahead of consensus and growing faster than revenues, and a 25% hike to the FY dividend. What’s…

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