After yet another year of political intrigue, economic surprise and corporate confoundment, 2017 is hurtling to a climactic conclusion.

With three months of the year left, a host of market-moving events in the fourth quarter will shape the landscape heading into the new year and beyond. Are you sufficiently prepared for the home straight?

Central Banks: Who’s next?

Coming into 2017, investors knew of the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish intentions. Chair Janet Yellen and the FOMC forecast, economic strength permitting, that interest rates would be hiked three times during the year, and have stuck to their word so far.

The Fed even introduced quantitative tightening (QT), the process of reducing their balance sheet – and now markets are hoping they will finish the job with a final rate hike, widely expected in December.

But it’s not just the Fed that are ending the year on a hawkish note. The European Central Bank is expected to reveal its own long-awaited tapering programme to reduce quantitative easing, while the Bank of England is now expected to raise interest for the first time in a decade before the end of the year.

Negotiating Brexit

Amongst a host of major surprises in 2016, the first political upset was the UK’s vote to leave the European Union in June. The vote paved the way for the triggering of Article 50 – the start of the irreversible 2-year leaving process – in March 2017.

Now, over 6 months on, Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU are in full swing. Or so we are told.

September’s German election concluded a plethora of scheduled and unscheduled European elections in 2017 that have strengthened the EU’s standpoint, while weakening the UK’s. Both French and German contests were won by the market-favoured candidates, the results doing little to rattle markets.

No agreement has yet been made on the eventual Bill that the UK will pay upon leaving, nor has a definitive agreement been reached on the rights of UK and EU citizens abroad. Both are vital precursors for the all-important trade deal talks between the two to begin.

Trump searching for first victory

The most unexpected global event of 2016, the election of Donald Trump, prompted the most impressive stock market rally in recent memory, sending global equity markets to record levels.

However, since his February inauguration, the President has been unable to boast of legislative success to back up stock market gains, failing to pass healthcare reform to repeal Obamacare. In fact, Trump’s only real success has been in riling up the unpredictable North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-un.

That looks set to change with proposed tax reforms. The Republican House leader Paul Ryan is set to bring the plan before Congress before the end of the year, and, if the plan is approved, it may even influence the Fed’s tightening plans over the course of 2018. But how big of an ‘if’ will that end up being?

Which Housebuilder is a top UK 100 performer while a major UK bank languishes in the bottom ten?

Over the page we analyse the top and bottom UK 100 performers over the course of 2017 so far.

An eventful nine months has seen the UK 100 trade negatively year-to-date during only a single session this year. The UK’s blue-chip index heads into the fourth quarter having traded a 4-month low in September, dipping below 7290 for the first time since May. However, September has seen a reversal of sorts, with the UK Index rallying back above 7300.  Below, we unveil the top and bottom 10 performers from the index over the course of the year.

Source: AlphaTerminal; 27 Sept 2017

The notable outperformer of 2017 is UK 100 newcomer NMC Health, up 75%. Having only been promoted to the blue-chip index at the end of Q3, the Middle Eastern focused medical company enjoyed the majority of its YTD gains as a constituent of the . With that said, alongside a new listing comes new opportunities, and the increased exposure could help NMC continue its meteoric rise to the top of the UK 100 .

Other notable names in the top 10 2017 performers so far include Worldpay (2nd; +50.9%) and Unilever (10th; +29.3%) after both rallied on takeover talk; Worldpay accepted a $10.8bn offer from US company Vantiv while Unilever has enjoyed further gains after rejecting a lucrative takeover offer from Kraft Heinz in February.

A mix of European-focused defensive companies, such as Coca-Cola HBC (4th; +39.9%) and Intertek (5th; +39.7%), alongside housebuilder Persimmon (3rd; +41.2%), copper miner Antofagasta (6th; +38%), airline IAG (7th; 33.9%), UK Index newcomer Rentokil (8th; +31.9%) and engineer Rolls-Royce (9th; +29.5%) complete the list.

At the other end of proceedings, Pearson (100th; -25.3%) has returned to the bottom of the UK Index , having jumped a few places higher at the end of the second quarter. The weaker US dollar has continued to weigh on the publisher, alongside pharmaceutical giant Shire (96th; -19.8%), itself falling into the bottom 10 for the first time.

WPP (99^th; -24%) has joined the list of underperformers after a second quarter profits warning, while BT (98th; -22.3%), despite only falling a further 1% in Q3, maintains its place in the bottom three performing stocks in 2017.

Barclays (91st; -14.2%) has drifted into the UK 100 underperformers’ list for the first time this year having retreated from an 18-month high in February, however is trading over 5% off its 2017 lows, while Centrica (97th; -20.1%) has fallen further down the list despite evading a Conservative pledge to cap consumers’ energy prices.

On the following pages, we reveal Accendo Markets’ top 10 stocks picks for the third and final quarter of 2017.

Aviva (AV.)

Will Aviva return to 2017 highs of 550p (+6.5%) or fall to January lows of 467p (-9.6%)?

• The insurer has broken out of 8-week falling highs resistance. Will it rally back to August’s 2017 highs?
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) broken out from falling highs, while Stochastics recovered from oversold
• Momentum turned positive, while Directional Indicators close to bullish cross
• Brokers are positively-biased, with 75% forecasting a 12-month price target above the current level

Broker Consensus: 56% Buy, 35% Hold, 9% Sell

Bullish: Credit Suisse, Outperform, Target 640p, +24% (3 Aug)

Average Target: 563.5p, +9.1% (29 Sept)

Bearish: Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Market Perform, Target 430p, -17% (25 Aug)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 September. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Berkeley Group (BKG)

Will Berkeley rally to its 4000p ceiling (+7.8%) or fall to 3450p rising lows support (-7.0%)?

• The London housebuilder has been in a steading rising channel throughout 2017.
• Stochastics have rallied to overbought from oversold earlier this month
• Momentum turned sharply positive, while Directional Indicators show bullish cross
• Broker target price forecasts are split, with 46% forecasting upside while 54% see downside

Broker Consensus: 47% Buy, 29% Hold, 24% Sell

Bullish: Peel Hunt, Buy, Target 4660p, +26% (27 Sept)

Average Target: 3556p, -4.2% (29 Sept)

Bearish: Credit Suisse, Underperform, Target 2985p, -20% (8 Sept)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 September. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

BP (BP.)

Will BP return to 2017 highs of 520p (+8.6%) or return to 2017 lows of 438p (-8.5%)?

• The Oil producer has broken out from an impressive 2017 trading range. Will it rally to January’s highs?
• Stochastics holding bullishly around overbought level, while RSI turns overbought for first time in 2017.
• Momentum sharply positive, although off best levels, while Directional Indicators diverge bullishly
• Brokers are positively-biased, with over two thirds expecting the price to rally from current level

Broker Consensus: 40% Buy, 47% Hold, 13% Sell

Bullish: Barclays, Overweight, Target 675p, +41% (25 Sept)

Average Target: 496p, +3.6% (29 Sept)

Bearish: Macquarie, Underperform, Target 400p, -16% (5 Aug)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 September. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Burberry (BRBY)

Will Burberry return to 2017 highs of 1880p (+8.7%) or fall to July lows of 1580p (-8.7%)?

• The fashion brand has broken down from intersecting rising lows support
• Stochastics have fallen back below the neutral 50 mark
• Momentum is stuck around the breakeven level, while Directional Indicators are showing no bias
• Brokers are negatively-biased, with less than a third expecting the price to increase from current levels

Broker Consensus: 14% Buy, 64% Hold, 22% Sell

Bullish: Credit Suisse, Outperform, Target 2000p, +15% (8 Sept)

Average Target: 1746p, +0.9% (29 Sept)

Bearish: Liberum, Sell, Target 1350p, -22% (1 July)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 September. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

CRH (CRH)

Will CRH return to 2016 highs of 3030p (+7.3%) or fall to December 2016 lows of 2550p (-9.7%)?

• The building materials company has broken out from 4-month falling highs resistance
• Stochastics have turned oversold, while RSI is at its highest level since May
• Momentum also at highest level since May, while Directional Indicators continue to diverge bullishly
• Brokers are overwhelmingly positive, with 85% expecting the price to rally above the current level

Broker Consensus: 71% Buy, 25% Hold, 4% Sell

Bullish: Goodbody, Buy, Target 3514p, +24% (1 Sept)

Average Target: 3060p, +8.3% (29 Sept)

Bearish: Exane BNP Paribas, Underperform, Target 2560p, -9.4% (22 Sept)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 September. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

G4S (GFS)

Will G4S return to 2017 highs of 340p (+23%) or fall to December 2016 lows of 220p (-20%)?

• The security firm has found support at 270p. Will it rally back to falling highs resistance?
• Both Stochastics and RSI have broken out from falling highs resistance
• Momentum remains negative, however is significantly off its August lows
• Broker target price forecasts are split, with 46% forecasting upside while 54% see downside

Broker Consensus: 28% Buy, 55% Hold, 17% Sell

Bullish: RBC Capital Markets, Outperform, Target 385p, +40% (8 Sept)

Average Target: 311p, -13% (29 Sept)

Bearish: Exane BNP Paribas, Underperform, Target 230p, -17% (6 Sept)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 September. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)

Will GSK return to July highs of 1640p (+9.7%) or return to September lows of 1440p (-3.7%)?

• The pharma giant has bounced from 1440p support, breaking out from 2-month falling highs resistance
• RSI remains stubbornly below the 50 mark, while Stochastics have recovered sharply from oversold
• Momentum remains negative but close to breakeven, while Directional Indicators close to bullish cross
• Brokers are overwhelmingly positive, with 92% expecting the price to rally above the current level

Broker Consensus: 39% Buy, 52% Hold, 9% Sell

Bullish: Oddo BHF, Outperform, Target 2100p, +40% (29 Sept)

Average Target: 1707p, +14% (29 Sept)

Bearish: Societe Generale, Sell, Target 1250p, -16% (1 Sept)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 September. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY)

Will Lloyds return to 2017 highs of 73.5p (+8.7%) or fall to April lows of 62p (-8.3%)?

• The UK bank has broken out from 3-month falling highs resistance. Will it return to 2017 highs?
• Stochastics are holding bullishly around the overbought mark
• Momentum remains positive, however is off best levels, while Directional indicators diverging bullishly
• Brokers are positively-biased, with 75% forecasting a 12-month price target above the current level

Broker Consensus: 59% Buy, 15% Hold, 26% Sell

Bullish: AlphaValue, Buy, Target 91.4p, +35% (28 Sept)

Average Target: 73.2p, +8.2% (29 Sept)

Bearish: Berenberg, Sell, Target 55p, -19% (1 Aug)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 September. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Marks & Spencer (MKS)

Will M&S return to 2017 highs of 398p (+12%) or fall back to August lows of 307p (-13%)?

• The high street retailer has broken out from intersecting resistance at 350p. How long will it last?
• Stochastics holding bullishly around overbought level, while RSI approached overbought.
• Momentum at highest level since May, while directional indicators diverge bullishly
• Brokers are negatively-leaning, with only 40% expecting the price to increase from current levels

Broker Consensus: 32% Buy, 20% Hold, 48% Sell

Bullish: Peel Hunt, Buy, Target 450p, +27% (11 July)

Average Target: 354p, +/-0% (29 Sept)

Bearish: Liberum, Sell, Target 250p, -29% (7 July)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 September. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Taylor Wimpey (TW.)

Will Taylor Wimpey return to 2017 highs of 205p (+7.5%) or fall to July lows of 175p (-8.3%)?

• The housebuilder has rallied from intersecting support at 182.5p. Will the rally continue to 2017 highs?
• Stochastics have turned back sharply after being oversold for the first time since July
• Momentum turned positive, while Directional Indicators close to bullish cross
• Brokers are positively-biased, with 75% maintaining a price target above the current price

Broker Consensus: 59% Buy, 35% Hold, 6% Sell

Bullish: Jefferies, Buy, Target 252p, +32% (21 Sept)

Average Target: 205.9p, +7.9% (29 Sept)

Bearish: Cenkos Securities, Hold, Target 160p, -16% (20 Sept)

Pricing data sourced from Bloomberg on 29 September. Please contact us for a full, up to date rundown.

Want to take advantage of the above opportunities right now?

Whether you see UK Stocks going up or down for the remainder of the year, tradable opportunities will present themselves regularly. We’re here to help you weed them out and capitalise on them. Accendo Markets can help you increase your profit potential with the use of leveraged instruments such as CFDs, a flexible alternative to traditional shares that is currently exempt from UK stamp duty.

CFDs: Like shares, but more flexible

The example above shows how buying 1,450 shares in British Land @ £6.90 requires an outlay of around £10,000 plus commission (see left-hand box), while the same exposure via a CFD requires about £500 plus commission (see right-hand box). If a trader invests in British Land, one would assume they believe the share price is likely to move in their favour. After considering the ‘worst case scenario’ and assigning funds to cover it, the trader may conclude there’s little point in exposing the full £10,000 to the BLND shares - some of that capital could be put to good use elsewhere in the markets. (Source: IG, Prices indicative)

CFDs are leveraged instruments, but you don’t have to use the leverage

If you had, say, £10,000 to invest in the stock market, you could deposit that amount into a share dealing account and purchase shares in a company. You would pay commission to open the position, 0.5% in stamp duty and the full £10,000 will be tied up in your chosen shares with any profit or loss based on that exposure. The same £10,000 worth of exposure can be secured with a CFD for a fraction of the initial outlay thanks to leverage, with the risk and reward the same as if £10,000 worth of traditional shares were held. But should you not be interested in leverage, you can always treat CFDs like shares. Simply deposit £10,000 into a CFD trading account and take the equivalent CFD position which will tie up just £500 (note that overnight financing costs will still apply). The remaining £9,500 is not tied up, so you can use some of that to take advantage of another short-term opportunity elsewhere, or simply leave it on the account to support any losses. Best of all, using a CFD means you pay no stamp duty!

What’s your view?

Think shares will rise? Take a long position by buying CFDs (buy low, aiming to sell high). Think they’ll fall? Take a short position by selling CFDs (sell high, aiming to buy low). For a more detailed rundown of CFDs, their mechanics, associated costs and some trading scenarios download our ‘Comprehensive Guide to CFDs’ here.

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