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Home / Special Reports / Spotting Big Market Moves

This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.

1 August 2018

Spotting Big Market Moves

On Monday, 30 July 2018, many retail investors awoke to startling news that their trading accounts had insufficient capital; they were in a margin call. In the run-up, most brokers relied on sending their clients a template email, leaving them in the dark and thus needing urgent help to continue trading. Accendo Markets’ clients, however, knew well in advance that this was coming and exactly how much extra would be required to keep their positions open.

The goal of this report is to help those investors who were wrong-footed by the new regulations and to inform them of their options and alternatives.

As of 30 July, the leverage available to retail investors has been limited to between 2:1 and 30:1, depending on the underlying product being traded. In the case of shares, these now all require a 20% initial deposit, equating to leverage of 5:1. The change is a result of new regulations from ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority), designed to protect individuals from over-leveraging themselves and losing more than they can afford.

It is a positive change that Accendo Markets supports in terms of both ensuring responsible trading and client relationship longevity. Keep in mind that these restrictions do not apply if you meet the criteria for Professional Status (click here).

Margin changes
  • For example, to trade Barratt Developments shares, with a value of £10,000, you now require a £2,000 deposit to open and hold the position (£1,000 previously; 2x increase)
  • To trade the FTSE100, based on £5 per point or 5 units, you now require £1,940 deposit to open and hold the position (£77 previously; 25x increase)
  • To trade EUR/GBP based on £5 per point or 50,000 units, you now require £1,470 deposit to open and hold the position (£88 previously; 16x increase)
  • To trade Brent Crude Oil based on £5 per point or 665 units, you now require £3,866 deposit to open and hold the position (£291 previously; 13x increase)

As much as the margin requirement for shares has increased, the magnitude of the increase is, in fact, the smallest across all the above asset classes. Those still looking to generate the same returns from Indices, FX and/or Commodities have a choice between either scaling up their trading proportionately, requiring substantially more deposit and thus potentially involving more risk, or looking at alternatives.

The margin requirement for Shares may now be higher, but the increase is small in comparison to other products. It also means a bigger buffer, offering investors more built-in breathing room in case the share price goes against them.

Finding the balance

Because margin requirements on different CFD products have changed, many retail investors are asking their brokers urgent questions about which underlying products could offer them more tradable opportunities.

The following report takes an in-depth look at the relative benefits and limitations of trading/investing in various CFDs asset classes.

If you require personalised help with your investments, you can contact Accendo Markets’ professional brokers and sign up to have our research sent directly to your inbox.

Page: 01

Trading shares directly

Before considering the difference between investing/trading the CFDs tied to different types of assets (shares, indices, FX), retail investors must ask themselves a question: if the margin requirements increased, why not trade the underlying products directly? Whatever an individual decides, they should always consider a product’s suitability to their circumstances (risk appetite, availability of capital, etc.). That said, CFDs are very accessible to retail clients and are more efficient in terms of capital being used.

If you typically trade £10,000 worth of shares in any of the FTSE blue-chips, like Barclays, Lloyds, BP and Vodafone, what are the chances that their share prices will fall all the way to zero? It sounds rather unlikely, doesn’t it? In which case, why tie up the entire £10,000 sum until the price rises to your desired profit target, paying both commission and an extra 0.5% stamp duty for the privilege?

By funding an Accendo Markets CFD account with the exact same £10,000, you can open an equivalent £10,000 position in any of those companies using just a 20%/£2,000 deposit. The remaining £8,000 sits on your account, either as extra margin for this trade or for other trading opportunities that might catch your eye.

If you fund with only the minimum £2,000 required for the same position, half (£1,000 in this case) serves as breathing room for the position, allowing it to fall by up to 10%, before it is automatically closed out to limit your losses, providing you with a 10% safety buffer. In the rare case where shares fall suddenly by more 10%, you can still never lose more than the full value of your initial 20% deposit.

To keep any trade open, you must ensure that you always have sufficient funds on your account to meet the minimum margin requirement for that trade (in this case £2,000).

Complex environment

When trading shares and share CFDs, investors must consider things such as corporate results (the company’s and its peers’), consensus forecasts, broker updates, the economic environment and technical indicators.

When analysing the index CFD, the number of things to take into consideration grows by several orders of magnitude. Indices may seem like monolithic financial products on the outside, but each is comprised of tens, hundreds, even thousands of constituents, each pushing and pulling on the index.

On any given day, each of the FTSE 100 companies can have a positive or negative influence on the index, for their own reasons. To many retail investors, keeping track of such a huge quantity of companies and all the other external influences (FX, geopolitics, sector read-across, etc.) is simply too daunting.

Measuring volatility

Investors often believe that equity indices like the FTSE 100, DAX and Nasdaq offer bigger tradable swings, volatility and profits because of their exposure to a multitude of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, such the global trade conflict or Brexit.

When markets are in an established trend, upwards or downwards, it can sometimes seem easier to put your money into the FTSE 100 blue-chip index rather than stock-pick individual names, which can move in different directions to the general market. But while seemingly more straightforward, buying and selling index CFDs doesn’t necessarily offer the same potential returns as a more in-depth research-based approach can bring.

For those investors who prefer holding financial instruments over the long-term, indices offer a mixed bag of recent results. The FTSE 100 is flat since the beginning of the year, while being only +0.7% in the past month. Currencies have fared similarly. Cable (GBP/USD) is -0.7% over the last month and down -2.9% since the beginning of the year. In daily trading, major indices rarely move more than 1-2%, while currencies typically exhibit even lower levels of daily volatility. (Source: AlphaTerminal, 1 August 2018)

By comparison, individual FTSE 100 shares can regularly offer 5-10% daily ranges. Major companies such as BT and BHP Billiton are up more than 7% in the last week, whilst trading -13.2% and +13.5% year-to-date, respectively. (Source: AlphaTerminal, 31 July 2018) Whether you are a proverbial bull or a bear, buying or selling equities, individual FTSE 100 components have just as much potential (in some cases even more) to offer superior trading ranges, whether holding those shares for the long-term or while trading the daily high-low range.

Indices vs. Equities

To compare volatility across different asset classes, let’s look at the recent stock market moves, both intraday, over the last 5 trading days, as well as over the last 5-year period.

In these tables, we are contrasting performance of the general market against a major component of the same market, the Anglo-Australian mining conglomerate BHP Billiton.

Both intraday movement and longer-term performance show greater volatility for equities compared to the overall index. The share price moves are greater on shares, potentially opening the door to bigger profits (but also losses) for investors.

Not all equities behave the same, of course, and different shares can see varying point swings. Moreover, some companies can be naturally volatile due to their industry or business model (e.g. Banks, Miners).

Astute investors tend to look for evidence of controlled volatility, where they can match an expected large swing in a share price with a specific event. This allows investors to be prepared for volatility in advance and anticipate a big point move.

On the next page, we discuss specific factors that investors need to pay attention to if they wish to spot significant share price moves.

Page: 02

Generating big moves

Many different factors can move a share price up or down a little, but only something significant can produce a large move in a share price.

Some companies’ share price can be naturally volatile if their business model is tied to a volatile commodity (e.g. Energy, Metals) or to an evolving competitive environment (e.g. Pharma, Tech). But you don’t have to rely on just these specific sectors to find tradable opportunities. Almost all FTSE 100 companies can be affected by one of these common factors.

When investors are exploring the markets, looking for potential next big market moves, the following drivers can help spot a tradable opportunity.

  • It is important to be aware when companies are reporting quarterly and annual results or when significant trading statements are scheduled for release. Major UK Banks are reporting Q2 results in early August and such reports could generate big market moves.
  • The key to understanding earnings announcements is to compare actual results to consensus expectations. If a company is doing well, but analysts expected it to do even better, share price may react negatively due to perceived underachievement. Accendo Markets can provide you with broker previews when they are issued.
  • Guidance is key. Companies usually issue expectations for sales and profits for the full year. Interim results that reiterate/upgrade this outlook tend to be viewed positively by the market. Those that downgrade the outlook (profits warning) tend to be taken negatively, the bigger the change in outlook, the bigger the reaction. For example, brickmaker Ibstock’s FY profits warning on 30 July led to an almost immediate 13% intraday share price fall, potentially offering bargain hunters a tradable opportunity.
  • Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity can produce significant share price moves, both on the day of the announcement of the takeover offer, and in the following days, as the company’s share price often moves towards the offer’s implied value. For example, shares in pharma company Shire were +10% on the day the M&A offer was announced (28 March), but have since gained another 27%, getting closer to the offer’s implied share price.
  • Ex-Dividend dates often produce significant falls in share prices, as the market attempts to “match” the reduction in the company’s value from dividend that is set to be paid out (as shares no longer trade with a right to receive the dividend). However, shares tend to recover after the ex-dividend date, presenting a tradable opportunity to buy CFDs when shares fall and then benefit from the recovery. For more information on these kinds of Dividend Plays, you can consult our in-depth report by (clicking here).
  • Changes in the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment can have an outsized effect on the movement of a company’s share price. Most international businesses are exposed to the ongoing global trade confrontation between the US, China and the EU. Many UK companies are similarly affected by Brexit and the 2018 UK economic slow-down. Specific sectors like Banks and Housebuilders are sensitive to changes in key interest rates set by the Bank of England.

Tradable opportunities

A valuable part of our service here at Accendo Markets includes highlighting trade opportunities such as momentum (positive or negative), breakouts and breakdowns, trading ranges and results/dividend plays in case you need a hand. We will help you identify which shares have risen or fallen sharply, may be near a top or bottom or could offer another specific tradable opportunity allowing you to maximise your profit potential.

Monday through Friday we scour the charts of the biggest and most popular shares for qualitative signs. We also filter huge amounts of data for quantitative signals, we analyse corporate news for both the positive and the negative, we look for read-across from other companies and monitor live share price reactions. In short, we do the heavy lifting for you, so you can decide which ideas are best for you, and which opportunities you want to trade.

Do you want to know which shares are down 20% from this year’s high? Looking for a bargain, so need to know who’s trading fresh all-time lows? Interested in who’s fallen most over the last day/month/week? Who’s tanked after results this morning and so could rebound?

We do all the above day and in day out and can tailor it for clients with certain sectors and stocks. No advice, of course, just quality assistance from the friendliest trading floor in the City of London.

Seize the moment

Does this sound like something that could be interesting to you in your day-to-day trading?

Exciting tradable opportunities appear all the time. If you need a helping hand in navigating the market and/or executing trades on your behalf, our team of experienced brokers and research analysts can help you achieve your investment goals.

Taking advantage of Accendo Markets’ service is rewarding and simple. Just sign-up to our Research & Trade Ideas, so you can immediately start benefiting from our daily research publications. And if you need a more personalised approach that is designed for your individual needs, get in touch with one of our professional brokers who can help you manage your portfolio and find new trade ideas.

Still not convinced? Then continue to the next page of the report, where we examine several big-name FTSE 100 companies in more detail. All of them presented recent investment opportunities that could have been profitable even considering new deposit requirements.

Page: 03

Reckitt Benckiser (RB)

Source: CMC Markets, 30 July 2018

Household goods company Reckitt Benckiser is a prime example of how attractive share price moves can compete with the returns often sought out by those trading Indices, FX and Commodities. Last Friday, 27 July, RB shares jumped almost 8% higher, representing an £800 profit on a £10,000 position. Assuming a 20% margin/£2,000 deposit to open the position, this would equate to a 40% return.

This market reaction can be attributed to the company’s publication of H1 results, where RB announced 23% year-on-year net revenue growth, 22% growth in adjusted operating profits, a 6% increase in interim dividend, as well as an improvement of FY revenue target.

Such across-the-board positive results can be uncharacteristic for a stable, safe-haven stock like RB. Sharp 8-10% share price moves are uncommon for “defensive” shares and would only have been spotted beforehand by investors who had access to broker previews, which can be provided in advance by Accendo Markets.

Investing in shares like Reckitt Benckiser before results are announced is a type of tradable opportunity regularly available to retail investors, as different companies publish results and trading updates daily.

If the shares had doubled, you could have doubled your money. On the flipside, if the shares had fallen by 8%, your position would have moved into a loss, however, the 20% deposit would have allowed you to keep the position open all the way down to 6120p (-10%; half of the value of the margin), where the shares have not traded since June.

Continue reading overleaf for more examples of big market moves that could benefit investors interested in equity CFDs.

AstraZeneca (AZN)

Source: CMC Markets, 30 July 2018

Presenting a different kind of a big mover is an international pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca. Unlike Reckitt Benckiser, shares in AstraZeneca have regularly risen on the backdrop of a multi-year uptrend. AZN shares are currently trading at record highs.

While AstraZeneca stock also reacts to news of corporate results, pharma company shares can also make big moves on the announcement of new drug approval in major international markets (US, Canada, EU, etc.), as well as news of successful drug trials.

News of very specialised medications passing to a new stage of pharmaceutical research may not capture the same headlines as quarterly or annual results, but they can be important business drivers for AstraZeneca and often lead to significant positive or negative share price reactions.

For example, a 4.2% share price rise on 26 July followed the release of company’s H1 results, when AZN confirmed its FY revenue guidance. While another 3.5% jump on 12 July can be attributed to news that AstraZeneca and industry peer Eli Lilly discontinued global Alzheimer’s drug trial. While a seemingly negative bit of news for the company, markets nevertheless reacted positively to the assurances that the end of the drug trial will not affect AstraZeneca’s FY guidance, underscoring the importance of forward outlook.

AstraZeneca shares represent the kind of tradable opportunity that is both valid for long-term investors, who can benefit from the 11.4% year-to-date share price growth, as well as short-term investors trading on the announcements of results. (Source: AlphaTerminal, 31 July 2018)

CFD traders can take advantage of large up and down 2-4% intraday price movements, while having the security of a new 20% deposit to safeguard their portfolio in case the shares go against them.

There are many other examples of FTSE 100 shares with significant recent price movements, both intraday and over a longer period, giving retail investors plenty of tradable opportunities.

BT Group (BT)

Source: CMC Markets, 30 July 2018

Shares in telecom company BT have seen significant recent share price volatility, particularly on the back of positive Q1 results on 27 July. BT reported 3% higher year-on-year pre-tax profits, EBITDA beating broker expectations and announced a launch of the UK’s first 5G network.

Markets responded with a near 5% share price move on the day of the announcement. For investors who held CFDs tied to BT shares prior to the news of results, this market reaction could have netted £1,000 in profit on a £20,000 position. With the initial deposit of £4,000, this would have represented a 25% return on the initial investment in a single day, excluding commission and overnight financing costs. Had the results been negative, of course, and shares moved 5% lower, investors would have suffered a loss.

Anglo American (AAL)

Source: CMC Markets, 30 July 2018

Shares in copper, iron and diamond mining company Anglo American traded within a 1580-1750p range in July, but several sessions have seen particularly volatile intraday trading.

On 24 July, Anglo American shares jumped 5.6% after announcement of positive results from its subsidiary Anglo American Platinum, as well as from its iron ore mine in South Africa. Considering the entire previous week (23-27 July), AAL shares moved more than 10% higher.

As is the case with many other Mining stocks, AAL shares remain sensitive to Chinese economic data, as well as to the global trade conflict, presenting additional instances of significant market volatility (with shares moving higher or lower) and potential tradable opportunities for equity investors.

Many FTSE 100 stocks are showing significant levels of market volatility, tied to announcement of results, broker upgrades and downgrades, changes in macroeconomic environment and other factors.

Accendo Markets is constantly helping our clients to navigate the new margin requirements, spot upcoming big market moves and help investors manage their equity portfolio with full confidence.

Page: 04

Want to take advantage of the above opportunities right now?

Whether you see UK Stocks going up or down for the remainder of the year, tradable opportunities will present themselves regularly. We’re here to help you weed them out and capitalise on them. Accendo Markets can help you increase your profit potential with the use of leveraged instruments such as CFDs, a flexible alternative to traditional shares that is currently exempt from UK stamp duty.

CFDs: Like shares, but more flexible

While buying 9,561 shares in IQE @ 104.58p requires an outlay of around £10,000 plus commission, the same exposure via a CFD requires about £2000 plus commission (see right-hand box; margin + costs). If a trader invests in IQE, one would assume they believe the share price is likely to move in their favour. After considering the ‘worst case scenario’ and assigning funds to cover it, the trader may conclude there’s little point in exposing the full £10,000 to IQE shares - some of that capital could be put to good use elsewhere in the markets. (Source: CMC, Prices indicative)

CFDs are leveraged instruments, but you don’t have to use leverage

If you had, say, £10,000 to invest in the stock market, you could deposit that amount into a share dealing account and purchase shares in a company. You would pay commission to open the position, 0.5% in stamp duty and the full £10,000 will be tied up in your chosen shares with any profit or loss based on that exposure. The same £10,000 worth of exposure can be secured with a CFD for a fraction of the initial outlay thanks to leverage, with the risk and reward the same as if £10,000 worth of traditional shares were held. But should you not be interested in leverage, you can always treat CFDs like shares. Simply deposit £10,000 into a CFD trading account and take the equivalent CFD position which will tie up as little as 20%/£2000 (note that overnight financing costs will still apply). The remaining £8,000 is not tied up, so you can use some of that to take advantage of another short-term opportunity elsewhere, or simply leave it on the account to support any losses. Best of all, using a CFD means you pay no stamp duty!

What’s your view?

Think shares will rise? Take a long position by buying CFDs (buy low, aiming to sell high). Think they’ll fall? Take a short position by selling CFDs (sell high, aiming to buy low). For a more detailed rundown of CFDs, their mechanics, associated costs and some trading scenarios download our ‘Comprehensive Guide to CFDs’ here.

Page: 05

The Accendo Markets Research Offering

Does your current broker’s morning report tell you all you need to know about yesterday’s news? If so, how is it offering you anything more than the plethora of information already available on the internet?

We’re proud that our morning editorial has become a hot commodity in the City, its content quoted daily by the journalists that are writing the news everyone else will be reading later in the day, if not the next. Our morning report tells you what’s driving the market at that moment and what to look out for in the day ahead.

If a company has reported earnings before the market opens, we’ll tell you why the shares are called to open up or down in relation to that announcement.

As well as the Morning Report, signing-up to Accendo Markets Research & Trade Ideas offers you the chance to receive the following publications:

  • Another Level: A selection of key level alerts on various stocks.
  • Index Focus: A selection of key level alerts on the major indices.
  • Trade Alerts: Trading ideas from our analysts. What do they think is likely to move?
  • Macro Calendar: Live market-moving data, breaking news as it happens
  • Week in Advance: A summary of next week’s key events. Is there a trading opportunity there for you?

To ensure you can act as quickly as possible, you’ll receive an email with a link to the latest publication as soon as it’s released. You can unsubscribe from these emails at any time.

Based on a wealth of experience, gained from both large and small institutions, our Research and Trade Ideas are produced in-house. Our team of dedicated professionals comprises both analysts and traders, drawing upon a wide range of resources and methodologies.

Our aim is to provide you with the manpower and expertise you need to help you clarify, interpret and capitalise on the ever-growing volume of market information.

The journalists don’t pay for it and neither do you, so why not give it a go? You’ve nothing to lose and perhaps a little more to gain…

Page: 06

This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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