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Home / Special Reports / Sell in May? No Way! – 10 stocks to trade this summer

This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.

18 May 2015

Sell in May? No Way! – 10 stocks to trade this summer

You may be familiar with the old adage:‘Sell in May, go away, don’t come back until St. Ledger’s day.’The premise of the saying goes something like this: The summer is, some say, a tough time for stocks. They suffer across the board as people switch off their central heating, stop drinking so much tea, watch less television and top up their vitamin D, causing a drawdown in the profits of utility companies and tea producers while the retail business suffers through a lack of festive and ‘therapeutic’ spending,  apparently.

To add insult to injury, so they say, many of the aforementioned consumers are also traders who, while sunning themselves and their families in the Bahamas, attending the races and generally not trading the markets, exaggerate the losses further through a distinct lack of trading volumeapparently.At Accendo Markets, we’re not sure of the last time ‘sell in May, go away’ was updated to bring it up to speed with the world as it is today. So we’ve done a little research, and you may already be realising that what we found is actually quite exciting. You know we wouldn’t be writing this exclusive report for you if it wasn’t!

It didn’t take long to find one piece of external research that suggested those who sold their shares in May, reinvesting in mid-September every year since 1989 only won out for 10 out of 29 years. Not wanting to take this as gospel, we had a look at the hard data and have amassed a list of 10 myth-bustingtrend bucking stocks. Some will be familiar, others not so, but all have the potential to do well this summer.

The Data

We looked the period post financial crisis, a difficult time for stocks. If ‘sell in May, go away…’ were to be followed to the tee, it would have been over the past 6 years as investors erred on the side of caution. Would they have been right? Sometimes, yes. Take a look at the tables below, which show the best and worst performing stocks along with their median percentage performance over the period June to September for the past six years.

Best & Worst UK 100 stock performance; Jun to mid-Sept 2009-2014

BestnWorst 2009 to 2014 one

BestnWorst 2009 to 2014 two

Ups and Downs

There are winners and losers, clearly, and each stock carries its own storyLloyds Banking Group (LLOY) has been bouncing back come rain or shine since being bailed out by the taxpayer in 2008 and gave a strong set of results last quarter with resumption of long-lost dividends being promised. BG group (BG.) still has some work to do following news of its acquisition by Royal Dutch Shell, damaged as it was by the recent oil price collapse. While BG is particularly vulnerable over the summer, these aren’t purely seasonal effects. On the flip side, we see that in general utilities and oil & gas stocks did indeed struggle over the summer months where an indisputable drop in demand hit the sectors as per usual, with the trend set to be exacerbated in 2015 by the current situation in commodities.We’ve scoured the UK 100 looking for the stocks that have the most potential this summer. While we’ll look at a couple of the stocks in the above tables – miners like Antofagasta (ANTO) and retailer Sports Direct International (SPD) - we’re aware that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance and so we’ve included some that you may not be familiar with – think London Stock Exchange Group (LSE) - that have nonetheless performed well over the summer months and could offer excellent opportunities for short- and medium-term traders over the period.

It could now pay to trade in May (….and June, July, August and September)

What has changed since ‘sell in May, go away’ was first coined? Firstly, communicationTechnology has enabled the trader to stay up to date with market news constantly and even trade where no-one could 20 years ago, meaning traders on holiday with their families are no further from the market action than their colleagues manning the terminals at home.

Secondly, short selling – the ability to speculate on falling prices. Those who coined the term ‘sell in May…’ were long-only investors worried that prices would fall on low volume and seasonal effects. At Accendo we provide trading facilities that allow you to ‘go short’ and thus profit from falling prices, meaning that what remain of the drivers for ‘sell in May, go away’ simply present us with more opportunities to capitalise on volatile trading conditions over the coming summer months.

With the ability to go short, you can leverage seasonal effects to your advantage. Old adage? Old wives’ tale more like. Why deprive yourself of a third of the trading year just because of a ‘saying’? The summer’s almost here. Get involved.

Read on for our top ten Summer picks…

Antofagasta (ANTO): Will Copper outperform this summer?
Will the share price rise towards 12-month highs of 862p or fall towards lows of 620p?ANTO19052015

ANTOTable19052015

Source: AlphaTeminal, LSE

Fresnillo (FRES): Will Gold find support above $1200?
Will the share price rise towards 12-month highs of 1039p or fall towards lows of 631p?FRES19052015

FRESTable19052015

Whitbread (WTB): A British success story that took on Starbucks and won...
Will the share price rise above 12-month highs of 5480p or fall towards lows of 3870p?

WTB19052015

WTBTable19052015

Source: AlphaTeminal, LSE

BT Group (BT.A): Broadband winner, boosted by EE purchase…
Will the price rise above 12-month highs of 473p or fall towards lows of 351p?

BTGroup19052015

BTGroupTable19052015

Source: AlphaTeminal, LSE

Sports Direct International (SPD): Have zero-hour contracts had their day?
Will the price rise towards 12-month highs of 829p or fall towards lows of 560p?

SPD19052015

SPDTable19052015

Source: AlphaTeminal, LSE

Shire (SHP): Challenger for pill-position in UK Index pharma sector?

Will the share price rise towards 12-month highs of 5760p or fall towards lows of 3210p?

SHP19052015

SHPTable19052015

Source: AlphaTeminal, LSE

Sky (SKY): Telefonica’s team mate in potential quad-play bonanza…Will the price rise towards 12-month highs of 1115p or fall towards lows of 840p?

SKY19052015

SKYTable19052015

Source: AlphaTeminal, LSE

ARM Holdings (ARM): The reason >1 billion smart phones function...Will the price rise towards 12-month highs of 1230p or fall towards lows of 780p?

ARM19052015

ARMTable19052015

Source: AlphaTeminal, LSE

Legal & General (LGEN): After a storming 2009, is LGEN missing the mark?Will the price rise towards 12-month highs of 296p or fall towards lows of 209p?

LGEN19052015

LGENTable19052015

Source: AlphaTeminal, LSE

London Stock Exchange Group (LSE): Global stock exchange player…
Will the price rise towards 12-month highs of 2616p or fall towards lows of 1750p?LSE19052015

LSETable19052015

Source: AlphaTeminal, LSE

Buy or Sell?

Whilst many brokers focus purely on what to buy (tapping into investors’ natural bullish bias) this report is more thought-provoking, providing an example of the service Accendo Markets provides to its clients. We highlight stocks that have both outperformed and underperformed and that could offer potential trading opportunities in both directions (up or down).Accendo Markets provides trading facilities that allow you to speculate on falling prices. If, for example, you thought a poor trading update would see a share price fall 10%, you could attempt to profit from the decline using one of our trading accounts.

It’s up to you

Armed with the information we can provide, you as a trader/investor can make your own decision about what you consider the best opportunities in terms of stocks having potential to rise or fall. It’s your choice as to what you trade and in which direction.Long the high-beta and fast-moving Banks/Miners? Short the slower moving and seasonally sensitive Utilities/Consumer staples? The choice is yours - Accendo is here to provide you with what you need to make an informed decision, be it via market overview, broker updates or stock-specific news.

Trading equities

Whether you see the UK 100 index or its components going up or down over the course of 2015, one thing is for sure - tradable opportunities will present themselves regularly.

If you have a particular equity in mind, you can trade it using CFDs which require as little as 5% deposit.

If you are optimistic on Barclays (BARC)* and wish to gain long exposure worth £10,000 via CFDs, you would require a £500 deposit. If the shares rally by 10% you would stand to make £1,000, just as if you held £10,000 of shares, with CFD leverage magnifying the return on your small deposit. If the shares fell by 10%, however, you would of course be liable for the £1,000 loss.

If you are negative on J Sainsbury (SBRY)* and wish to take short exposure worth £10,000 via CFDs, you would require a £500 deposit. If the shares fell 20% you would stand to make £2,000, as if you had sold short £10,000 worth of shares, with CFD leverage magnifying the return on your small deposit. If the shares gained 20%, however, you would of course be liable for the £2,000 loss.

Note that ‘Stop losses’ can be used on Equity CFD positions to limit any losses.
NB: *Stocks chosen randomly.

Before taking a position in the Index or Stocks, be sure to contact Accendo for…

  • Updates - How does the index or your preferred stock look in terms of investor sentiment? News and broker updates can emerge daily affecting share prices. Optimism can switch to pessimism in the blink of an eye depending on what’s going on around the world.
  • How to use CFDs and Spread Bets to maximise your profit potential.
  • How to use the tools available to minimise the risk involved.

The Accendo approach – what’s different?At Accendo Markets we don’t tell you what to do. It’s your call whether you buy or sell. Our aim is to provide the help you need, highlighting opportunities which may be profitable to you, the trader, and assist you in making trading decisions from which you can benefit via use of leveraged instruments.Our approach focuses on 3 elements below;

  • Education - not obligation
  • Observations - not recommendations
  • Assistance - not persistence

Our unique and award-winning service provides you with the help and tools you need to make appropriate trading decisions in the financial markets, both to grow and protect your capital.

CFDs – A simple way to increase profit potentialFor example, while traditional Vodafone (VOD) shares require the full amount be paid up front (e.g. £10,000 outlay for 4,545 shares at 220p), an identical trade using CFDs involves an initial outlay of just £500 (VOD CFDs require a 5% deposit). The outlay is lower but the risk and reward are the same as if £10,000 of shares were held.The CFD trader benefits/suffers to the same extent as the traditional investor but has the advantage of not having to part with the full amount at the outset. He/she also saves on stamp duty as there is no physical purchase. Best of all, the CFD trader can take a positive or negative view.Should you not be interested in the leverage advantage of CFDs but do wish to purchase shares, you can always treat CFDs like shares (also avoiding stamp duty). Simply deposit the full value of the share position you would like to take (i.e. £10,000) and take an equivalent CFD position (note that overnight financing costs will still apply).

Think an index will rise? Take a long position by buying the CFDs. Think an index will fall? Take a short position by selling the CFDs. For a more detailed rundown of CFDs, their mechanics, associated costs and some trading scenarios click here.

Beware that the combination of CFD leverage and bigger share-price movements (volatility) can result in bigger than expected losses which can even exceed your original deposit.

For any questions on how to trade UK equities via CFDs or shares,including ways in which your risk can be managed,call us to discuss on 0203 051 7461

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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