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Shire

Does this present a Takeover opportunity for you?

Will Shire close the gap with Takeda’s £49 offer price as the deal nears completion?

  • The chart shows the Shire share price movements since March 2017
  • 12 Nov: Takeda expects Shire merger to complete ~8 Jan;
  • 12 Nov: Takeda sets shareholder approval meeting for 5 Dec
  • 12 Nov: Takeda agrees to divestments; expects EU approval of merger ~20 Nov
  • 12 Nov: Takeda expects pre-tax cost synergies of >$1.4B/year after three years
  • Takeda is offering Shire shareholders £49/share (shares and cash)
  • Implied offer £49.7/share, using latest Takeda share price and actual FX rates
  • Shares now 4723p (at time of writing)
  • Will the shares close the gap with the offer/implied offer, or will the deal hit hurdles?

Click to enlarge

Trading Shire – An Example

Let’s say you think Shire shares are likely to rise further as the deal nears completion, towards the £49/share offer, or implied offer of £49.7/share. You decide to buy exposure to £10,000 worth of Shire using a CFD, at the current price of 4723p. To do this, you need £2,000.

For the purpose of this example, let’s assume the Shire share price rises by 3.7% to £49 or by 5.2% to £49.7. Your profit would be £370/£520, from your initial investment of £2,000.

Conversely, let’s assume you open the above position, and place a stop-loss at 5% from the current price. The deal hits a hurdle, sentiment sours and Shire shares fall 5% and hit your stop-loss. Your loss would be £500.

This is provided for information purposes only. It should not be taken as a recommendation.

This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.


Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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