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This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.

Buy – Berkeley Group - 31 October 2017

Trade Parameters

  • Opening Price: 3747p
  • Stop Loss: 3650p (97p/2.6% below)
  • Profit Limit: 4000p (253p/6.8% above)
  • Reward vs Risk: 2.6x
  • CFD Margin: 10%

Observations – For

  • 12-month rising channel
  • Bounce off rising support, higher volumes
  • Bounce off 200 4-hour moving average
  • 4-hourly technicals oversold

Observations – Against

  • Certain technicals not yet bounced
  • Momentum still negative
  • No bullish reversal on Point & Figure
  • Supportive daily moving averages much lower

Analyst Comments

Bullish technical set-up. 5% dividend yield supportive. Risks are London exposure and sensitivity to interest rates ahead of what is widely expected to be a Bank of England hike on Thursday. However, it is seen as a one-off, merely reversing last summer’s referendum inspired cut, until we get more clarity on Brexit. Broker Barclays said market a little optimistic on sector. Berkeley is almost a under-performer, up only 33% YTD vs peers up 40-57%.

Consensus is Bullish on the shares with 78% of October broker updates being to Hold or Buy the shares, and 50% of broker targets suggesting upside potential from current levels.

Next Event: BoE interest rate decision, 2 NovInterim results, 8 Dec;

Latest Broker 12-Month Consensus:  39% Buy, 33% Hold, 28% Sell (full breakdown on request)

Source: DowJones Newswires, Reuters News, Bloomberg  or Company Press releases

Broker Ratings & 12-Month Target Prices (Bloomberg)

5-month (4-hourly); MACD, Stochastics, Relative Strength Index, Momentum & Trend Strength

Share 1wk 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr
Perf % -5.1 0.7 7.9 14.9 57.7 12.9 64.4 53.0 146.2
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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