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Home / Trade Alert / Buy – BAE Systems

This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.

Buy – BAE Systems - 11 January 2018

Trade Parameters

  • Opening Price: 588p
  • Stop Loss: 565p (23p/3.9% below)
  • Profit Limit: 635p (47p/8.0% above)
  • Reward vs Risk: 2.0x
  • CFD Margin: 5%

Observations – For

  • Bullish breakout; testing 100-day MA
  • Stochastics & RSI holding upper half = bullish
  • Momentum positive, MACD rising
  • ADX trend strength = strong

Observations – Against

  • Shares rallied 10% since mid-November
  • No volume jump on share price breakout
  • 200-day MA could be resistance at 609p
  • Falling highs since June

Analyst Comments

Attractive technical breakout. Broker research from Vertical suggests UK defence cut concerns overblown, trading at too big a discount to US arms makers. Broker UBS upgraded the stock to buy thanks to combat deal with Qatar and pension deficit review offering cash-flow upside. Several recent contract wins. Dividend yield of 3.8%.

Consensus is bullish. Neutrals could be encouraged to upgrade to positive after the breakout. Note 77% of broker target prices suggesting upside from current levels, while the consensus target suggests 12% upside, beyond even our target of regaining October 640p highs.

Next Event: FY 2017 results, 22 Feb;

Latest Broker 12-Month Consensus:  64% Buy, 27% Hold, 9Sell (full breakdown on request)

Source: DowJones Newswires, Reuters News, Bloomberg  or Company Press releases

Broker Ratings & 12-Month Target Prices (Bloomberg)

1yr (daily): MACD, Stochastics, Trend strength, RSI, Momentum

Share 1wk 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr
Perf % 2.4 5.7 -4.5 -6.6 -3.5 13.3 25.8 35.6 69.1
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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