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10 June 2018

World Cup Winners

A Summer of Sport has begun in Europe, fans readying their celebration of a host of unmissable games and events catering for all tastes.

At home, Tennis lovers get their annual dose of pageantry from Wimbledon and its legendary grass courts. F1 enthusiasts can follow drivers round the iconic Silverstone at the British Grand Prix. Golf fans have both the Open and Ryder Cup, cyclists the Tour de France and cricketers England v India.

Then there is the Granddaddy of them all: the sports event of not just the year, but this half of the decade: the FIFA World Cup. Unlike most other competitions, it occurs once every four years, like the Olympics, one of the few events where fans can support national team on a true world stage.

Bringing People Together

The World Cup is not just a sports event, it is also an important social event. Even those oblivious to the rules of the game are aware of the tournament. Some follow it for national pride or love of sport; others out of curiosity, as the media blankets the airwaves with non-stop coverage.

Some people love it, others not so much. But even those who don’t like the competition itself may be swept up by the phenomenon. As a social event, the World Cup brings families and friends together and provides a strong impetus for spending money on food, leisure and entertainment.

This general increase in personal consumption is expected to produce a noticeable economic impact on specific sectors and companies. While the UK economy in general is experiencing a 2018 growth slowdown, the World Cup could be set to improve business prospects for many commercial businesses. And since many of these companies are publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, this means potential for shares to offer tradable opportunities.

Tapping the Momentum

It is undeniable that the World Cup is a momentous, emotional event for many spectators. In our previous report on “Momentum Investing” we discussed the power of such emotional events to generate short-term tradable opportunities for savvy investors.

A smart market trader would approach the World Cup dispassionately. Not as a show but a commercial and social pivot-point, an event that can trigger waves of positive or negative share price momentum in specific public companies.

Here at Accendo Markets will believe that the best traders stay ahead of the competition, tapping into unorthodox trading opportunities. We are confident in our mission to identify such strategies and help our clients navigate the euphoria of the World Cup not as passive spectators, rather as smart and educated investors.

Our goal in this report is to identify companies whose shares could be set to benefit from the World Cup’s consumer spending boost and to help investors avoid the pitfalls of misidentifying trends.

Here’s a hint: a certain pub operator saw its shares rise by more than 11% during the 2010 World Cup in South Africa and by more than 10% during the 2006 World Cup in Germany. Could it repeat such performance this summer?

Continue reading this report to find out more about shares that could rise during the World Cup and sign up to have our research sent directly to your inbox.

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Previous Tournaments

What is the optimal way to identify stocks that traditionally do well during the World Cup and can reasonably be expected to offer tradable opportunities during the 2018 World Cup in Russia? While looking purely at historical share price data can be tempting, it is not necessarily the best way.

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. While certain stocks may have done well during past tournaments, there is no guarantee that this performance will be repeated.
  • Correlation does not imply causation. Stock markets are complex environments where stock price moves can be influenced by tens or even hundreds of drivers, including corporate earnings, macroeconomic indicators, state of global economy, geopolitical news or legal proceedings.
  • Weight of evidence. To properly identify an investment opportunity, a smart trader would look for a “weight of evidence”, a compelling combination of factors that all point toward a certain stock.

To demonstrate the pitfalls of relying exclusively on historical price data for picking stocks, let’s look at a chart of the top 10 FTSE 350 Sector performers during the past six FIFA World Cups (1994 through 2014).

While Metals & Mining appears to be best performer during past World Cups, there is no weight of evidence (such as consumer spending patterns) that ties the sector to the World Cup. This means that while trading Mining shares could be profitable on its own during the competition, there is no compelling reason to suggest that the World Cup, as an event, contributes directly to the sector’s share price momentum.

Similar observations can be made when looking at individual stocks, with Mining and Utilities shares dominating the Top 25 best performer list by average gains.

Precious metals miners such as Fresnillo or Randgold Resources may have done well on the stock market during previous FIFA World Cups, yet their 2018 year-to-date share price performance is negative. And there is no additional weight of evidence to suggest that these shares will get a positive boost from the sporting event.

So, what constitutes a “weight of evidence”? Which factors will need to work in unison for a stock to benefit from the positive momentum generated during the 2018 World Cup?

We have identified the following key rules for selecting suitable shares that have the potential to do well during this year’s premier sporting event. Continue reading the report to find out more about the selection criteria as well as analysis of a group of 5 companies which could benefit.

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Rules of the Game

The weight of evidence approach refers to the use of a combination of data from several independent sources to establish sufficient rationale to make an investment decision. It is our belief that the following key rules can provide sufficient evidence of a tradable opportunity during the 2018 World Cup.

  • Historical performance. Shares that did well during previous World Cups. While historical share price behaviour during past World Cup is not sufficient evidence on its own, it can support a broader argument in favour of identifying tradable opportunities.
  • Technical analysis. Shares that follow a compelling trend, looking set to break out or with strong momentum, the World Cup providing that final nudge or extending existing momentum.
  • Supportive forward outlook. Companies that have a healthy future profits guidance, upbeat broker comments and medium-term share target prices in line with investor goals.
  • Commercial attractiveness. One of the most compelling factors that can help identify investment opportunities during the World Cup is the measure of how much certain companies can benefit from increased commercial activity surrounding the tournament.

Circle of Consumer Momentum

As consumers start watching the 2018 World Cup, they may come under the influence of increased marketing from both FIFA’s advertising partners (Adidas, Coca-Cola, Visa, etc) and other companies that make products for social events (i.e. food & beverages, entertainment, leisure or communications services).

Not only could these companies experience better trading conditions, but there may also be increased media focus, with the companies very much in the spotlight during the event. The World Cup can kick off the momentum, but this momentum has potential to become self-perpetuating.

People may consume more goods, driving up sales. The media could catch on the changed commercial environment, putting these companies under the microscope. Increased media attention has potential to drive up consumer interest, leading to better trading and creating a self-driving business circle during the World Cup.

The same could be true for the financial markets. As investors get exposed to increased media coverage of companies which could benefit from doing more business during the tournament, they could start bidding up the shares, creating a wave of technical momentum.

A smart trader that follows the principles of Momentum Investing by following emotional events, identifying waves of momentum and making short-term trades to capitalise, can use people’s emotional attachment to the World Cup to generate momentum leads. Continue reading as we discuss companies which are projected to benefit from this sporting euphoria.

Commercial Winners

Listed companies (those with tradeable shares) set to benefit commercially from positive World Cup momentum can be broken into several categories, based on the types of products/services they offer to UK consumers.

  • Pubs, Restaurants & Breweries. Many will plan to watch evening and weekend matches in the company of friends, meeting in a pub or sports restaurant, which could boost business for JD Wetherspoon, Mitchells & Butlers, Greene King, Fuller Smith & Turner, Whitbread and Restaurant Group.
  • Supermarkets and Food delivery. Many games take place during work hours, meaning that people may look to buy snacks and drinks for the office, which could help retailers like Tesco, Morrisons and Sainsbury’s, and food delivery companies like Just Eat, Ocado and Domino’s Pizza.
  • Media and Telecommunications. While the World Cup is available to watch on terrestrial TV (benefiting ITV) rather than subscription (Sky), media companies could also benefit from increased consumer interest in football news. Thanks to 4G phone companies could benefit from larger than normal wireless data consumption as people stream games, helping telecoms like Vodafone, BT and TalkTalk.
  • Sports betting. Shares in bookmakers like Paddy Power Betfair, GVC Holdings and William Hill could experience positive momentum thanks to a spike in interest in betting on football matches.
  • Sports kit retailers. While manufacturers themselves (Nike, Adidas, UnderArmour, Puma and others) are not part of the FTSE, sports retailers like JD Sports Fashion and Sports Direct could see increased footfall from consumers looking to purchase new equipment and teamwear.
  • Russia is a sprawling nation and, with matches taking place in 11 cities around the country, people will likely need to use air travel to reach the venues, with airlines potentially seeing increased June-July traffic statistics. While Ryanair doesn’t fly directly to Russia, many football fans may use the low-cost carrier to travel the initial leg of their journey to Russia. Meanwhile, British Airways flies directly to many of the venue cities, benefiting the bottom line of BA owner International Consolidated Airlines.

However, just as with historical price data, improved business environment is not the entire picture. As we have mentioned before, a smart trader will look for the weight of evidence, combining commercial attractiveness of stocks with other factors to drill down to the final selection of a suitable financial investment opportunity.

In the following section, we shall discuss 5 potentially attractive shares that combine multiple relevant traits and could be interesting for investors looking to benefit from the World Cup momentum.

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Ocado

Source: CMC Markets, 14 June 2018

Ocado is the world’s largest dedicated online grocery retailer with over 580,000 active customers. Ocado has also developed a sophisticated online shopping platform that it licenses to major food retailers around the world. This tech-focused strategy has been vindicated after the retailer struck a series of partnership deals in the UK, Sweden, France, Canada and, most recently, the US with retail giant Kroger.

These partnerships have led to Ocado’s share price experiencing very good performance in 2018, with shares +170% year-to-date. Being a young company, Ocado has traded only during one previous World Cup, with its share price +5.4% during the 2014 tournament (Source: LSE).

Ocado could benefit from World Cup momentum by tapping into increased consumer spending on fast online food delivery, as families and friends gather to watch matches. Technical analysis of Ocado’s share price chart shows a strong uptrend and rising channel since November 2017, with high ADX (trend strength) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) stuck overbought (a bullish sign).

The risk is that the trend gets exhausted, negative financial results lead to a trend reversal and/or price correction to the channel floor. Analyst consensus is bullish, with 41% of brokers recommending “Buy”, 48% neutral and only 12% recommending “Sell” (Source: Bloomberg,14 June 2018).

Just Eat

Source: CMC Markets, 14 June 2018

Just Eat is a leading on-line food delivery platform that has partnered with over 28,000 UK restaurants to deliver takeaway meals to households and offices around the country.

Just Eat shares have been on an uptrend, with a rising channel dating back to the beginning of 2017. Its 2018 share price is largely flat, though, due to increasing competition in the online space (Deliveroo)

As a new company, Just Eat has only 1 previous World Cup event under its belt, with its share price rising a modest 1.8% during the 2014 World Cup in Brazil (Source: LSE).

With online food delivery platforms having grown in popularity, Just Eat has potential to benefit from a momentum boost during this 2018 World Cup, as people gather to watch football matches.

The main risks for Just Eat shares comes from growing competition from similar food delivery platforms (i.e. Deliveroo, Uber Eats) eating away at its market share.

Broker consensus on Just Eat is bullish, with over 72% of analysts recommending “Buy”, 11% neutral, while 16.7% say “Sell”. With an average 12-month target price of 896p, more than 66% of brokers see potential upside from current levels (Source: Bloomberg, 14 June 2018).

International Consolidated Airlines Group

Source: CMC Markets, 15 June 2018

International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG) is an Anglo-Spanish holding company with controlling stakes in the UK flag carrier British Airways, Spain’s Iberia and Irish Aer Lingus. With direct routes to most of the major World Cup venues in Russia, IAG could benefit from increased passenger traffic.

IAG share price has been on an uptrend since April, seeing strong Q2 positive momentum. The stock traded in a narrow sideways channel in May, but has since broken out to fresh 20-year highs, opening door for a recovery to 1997 all-time highs.

Oil prices retreating from their recent highs and potential for increased passenger traffic to Russia (adding to solid passenger numbers in May) could help extend the share price breakout. However, the risk of oil/fuel prices returning to an upward trajectory could force the share price to retreat below the former resistance line.

Broker consensus is bullish, with 55% of analysts recommending “Buy”, 28% neutral and only 7% saying “Sell”. The average medium-term target of 742p (close to record highs), a median of 795p from June broker updates and 54% of analysts suggesting upside from current levels supports the breakout towards record high, though events which deter people from flying (such as terrorism) could lead to more negative updates (Source: Bloomberg,15 June 2018).

BT Group

Source: CMC Markets, 14 June 2018

BT Group is a broadly diversified telecommunication holding that has long been a staple of British everyday life. BT offers a plethora of products that could be attractive to consumers during the World Cup, including mobile broadband (via its EE subsidiary) and home broadband services for streaming matches at home and on the go.

BT has a long history with the World Cup, with its best share price performance during 1998 World Cup in France (+18.5%), while its average performance over the past 6 tournaments has been broadly flat at -0.7% (Source: LSE).

The BT share price has been on a downtrend since early 2017, but recently encountered horizontal support that has seen the downtrend slow and after a short period of consolidation delivered a bullish breakout above 210p. The RSI and Stochastics technical indicators are moving higher, supporting the breakout, though risks remain that the breakout proves short-lived, the shares turn lower, break below 201p and extend the downtrend.

Broker consensus is relatively bullish, with 48% of analysts recommending “Buy”, 44% neutral and only 8% recommending “Sell”. 91% of brokers suggest upside from current share price levels, with a medium-term target price of 284p and a recent update from broker Macquarie suggesting a significantly higher 355p 12-month target price (Source: Bloomberg,14 June 2018).

Greene King

Source: CMC Markets, 14 June 2018

Restaurant operator Greene King is the largest owner of UK pubs and breweries. With pubs being a mainstay of communal football culture, Greene King has potential to further benefit from the boost to customer footfall that the World Cup brings to its establishments. As football lovers gather to celebrate and watch the World Cup with friends and family, pub operators could do well commercially.

Greene King stands apart from its competitors having analysable share price performance for all 6 of the last World Cup, its share price rising by 11.2% during the 2010 WC in South Africa and 10.1% during the 2006 event in Germany, pointing to a historical bond between pub operators and football tournaments. With a 12.6% year-to-date share price gain, Greene King has also been a strong recent performer (Source: LSE 13 June 2018).

Broker consensus on Greene King is mixed-to-positive, indicating potential risks that the uptrend could tire and reverse, though 47% of brokers still suggest “Buy”, 23.5% are neutral, while 29.4% say “Sell”.

The average medium-term broker target price (589p) is below current levels due to strong share price movements in May and June 2018, which have outpaced lagging broker reports. That said, a recent update from Liberum (11 May 2018) suggests a target price of 670p, meaning that some brokers still see upside potential for Greene King shares over the medium term (Source: Bloomberg, 14 June 2018).

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Want to take advantage of the above opportunities right now?

Whether you see UK Stocks going up or down for the remainder of the year, tradable opportunities will present themselves regularly. We’re here to help you weed them out and capitalise on them. Accendo Markets can help you increase your profit potential with the use of leveraged instruments such as CFDs, a flexible alternative to traditional shares that is currently exempt from UK stamp duty.

CFDs: Like shares, but more flexible

While buying 9,561 shares in IQE @ 104.58p requires an outlay of around £10,000 plus commission, the same exposure via a CFD requires about £2000 plus commission (see right-hand box; margin + costs). If a trader invests in IQE, one would assume they believe the share price is likely to move in their favour. After considering the ‘worst case scenario’ and assigning funds to cover it, the trader may conclude there’s little point in exposing the full £10,000 to IQE shares - some of that capital could be put to good use elsewhere in the markets. (Source: CMC, Prices indicative)

CFDs are leveraged instruments, but you don’t have to use leverage

If you had, say, £10,000 to invest in the stock market, you could deposit that amount into a share dealing account and purchase shares in a company. You would pay commission to open the position, 0.5% in stamp duty and the full £10,000 will be tied up in your chosen shares with any profit or loss based on that exposure. The same £10,000 worth of exposure can be secured with a CFD for a fraction of the initial outlay thanks to leverage, with the risk and reward the same as if £10,000 worth of traditional shares were held. But should you not be interested in leverage, you can always treat CFDs like shares. Simply deposit £10,000 into a CFD trading account and take the equivalent CFD position which will tie up as little as 20%/£2000 (note that overnight financing costs will still apply). The remaining £8,000 is not tied up, so you can use some of that to take advantage of another short-term opportunity elsewhere, or simply leave it on the account to support any losses. Best of all, using a CFD means you pay no stamp duty!

What’s your view?

Think shares will rise? Take a long position by buying CFDs (buy low, aiming to sell high). Think they’ll fall? Take a short position by selling CFDs (sell high, aiming to buy low). For a more detailed rundown of CFDs, their mechanics, associated costs and some trading scenarios download our ‘Comprehensive Guide to CFDs’ here.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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