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Morning Report - 6 June 2019

Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Sage 757 23.8 3.2 25.9
Associated British Foods 2575 64 2.5 26.0
United Utilities 807.2 20 2.5 9.6
Micro Focus 1905.4 46.6 2.5 37.8
Ocado 1139.5 27 2.4 44.2
Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Hargreaves Lansdown 1981.5 -145 -6.8 7.2
NMC Health 2260 -110 -4.6 -17.4
Johnson Matthey 3135 -61 -1.9 12.0
Rio Tinto 4521 -85 -1.8 21.2
Royal Bank of Scotland 214.4 -4 -1.8 -1.1
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK FTSE 100 7,220.2 5.9 0.1 7.3
UK FTSE 250 19,072.2 64.0 0.3 9.0
FR CAC 40 5,292.0 23.7 0.5 11.9
DE DAX 30 11,980.8 9.6 0.1 13.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 25,539.5 207.3 0.8 9.5
US Nasdaq Composite 7,575.5 48.4 0.6 14.2
US S&P 500 2,826.2 22.9 0.8 12.7
JP Nikkei 225 20,808.9 32.8 0.2 4.0
HK Hang Seng Index 50 26,900.5 5.0 0.0 4.1
AU S&P/ASX 200 6,389.0 30.5 0.5 13.2
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 51.75 0.4 0.7 13.9
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 60.80 0.4 0.7 12.3
Gold ($/oz) 1331.49 2.6 0.2 3.8
Silver ($/oz) 14.72 0.0 0.1 -4.8
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2690 0.01 -0.5
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1231 0.02 -2.1
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1298 -0.02 1.6
FTSE 100 called to open flat at 7220

FTSE 100: 1-month, 3-hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview:

FTSE 100 called to open flat at 7220, holding this week’s rebound and breakout above 7190. Bulls need a break above 7235 to challenger yesterday’s 7250 highs. Bears require a breach of rising support at 7210 to test 7190 for further downside. Watch levels: Bullish 7235, Bearish 7205

Calls for a flat open come courtesy of a mixed session in Asia overnight following solid gains on Wall Street after Fed rate cut hopes rose in the wake of weak jobs data. Sentiment soured after a lack of progress on avoiding US tariffs on Mexican goods, adding to global trade tensions.

Oil prices off their lows but remain under pressure following yesterday’s US inventory data. Copper holding around recent lows (watch Miners weak in Australia overnight; RIO -2.9%, BHP -1.3%). Gold off overnight lows, but holding close to recent rally highs. GBP off yesterday’s highs vs USD, but offering little help a FTSE being weighed  upon by Oil.


In corporate news this morning:

Aviva returns to running Aviva Life and General Insurance separately in UK; targets cost reduction of £300m/year by 2022; 1,800 job cuts (6% workforce) over 3 years; 2019 trading performance in-line; reiterates commitment to progressive dividend policy and debt reduction of at least £1.5B.

Legal & General writes UK’s biggest bulk annuity transfer, in excess of £4.6B for Rolls-Royce UK Pension Fund, covering approximately 33,000 in-payment pensioners. Deal reduces post-retirement obligations for Rolls Royce by £4.1B; cash flow guidance unchanged.

AstraZeneca’s Calquence Phase III ELEVATE-TN trial met primary end-point at interim analysis in previously-untreated chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

Hargreaves Lansdown waives fees from Woodford Equity Income Fund while suspended hot on the heels of St James Place revoking Woodford’s mandate for three of its funds.

FTSE Quarterly Review sees EasyJet and Hikma Pharmaceuticals dropped from FTSE100, replaced by JD Sports and Aveva.

Carnival will no longer sail to Cuba after US travel ban, losing a small but growing revenue stream.

Auto Trader FY revs +8%, op profit +10% (69% margin +2pts), pre-tax +15% (+10.8% excl. sale of Smart Buying); cash generation +13%, gross debt -8.7%, final div +15%; 2020 product growth unlikely to match exceptional 2019; price lever seen flat, stock lever slightly down, retailer forecourts flat, Manufacturer/Agency revenues down in H1; costs up low to-mid single digits.

Go-Ahead reports growth across all divisions; ups full year expectations for London and international bus division. Regional bus expectations broadly unchanged.

Entertainment One responds to press speculation; confirms Mark Gordon (President and Chief content officer of film, television and digital) remains part of eOne team both now and into future.

Sports Direct makes 30p/share bid (27% premium) for Game Digital after raising stake above 30%, but GAME management says take no action. Formal response in due course.


In focus today:

The latest update on ECB Policy (12.45pm) and the all-important press conference (1.30pm). Will outgoing (Oct) dovish President Draghi light any stimulus fireworks to help a struggling Eurozone economy, especially with GDP data (10am) likely to confirm another quarter of the slowest growth in 5 years (1.2%) and inflation (also 1.2%) flirting with a revisit of 2018 lows. Or will he merely offer his usual dovish rhetoric with some fresh threats to loosen policy further. Watch EUR and DAX.

Bank of England Governor Carney speaks at 10am – watch GBP, the Fed’s Kaplan (1.40pm) and the Fed’s Williams (6pm). Will the former speak of Brexit when he speaks at the Institute of International Finance Spring Meeting, in Tokyo? Will the latter pair talk of potential for a US rate cut?

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.1

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

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