Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +10pts at 7440, holding yesterday’s 7425 breakout beyond June falling highs resistance. Bulls need 12 July highs to be overcome to open the door for further gains to regain prior peaks at 7480, 7540 and June’s 7600 record. Bears are clinging to limited progress overnight, hoping this is merely a fake-out before a bearish reversal to 7300. Watch levels: Bullish 7450, Bearish 7430.

Calls for a positive open come as Asian bourses build on US gains (a fresh trifecta of records) fuelled by tech (above dot-com peak) and oil holding yesterday’s US inventory drawdown inspired gains. This despite a looming ECB policy update which could contain more hawkish QE tapering hints, traders perhaps seeing this as a vote of economic confidence rather than depriving addicted markets of stimulus.

Japan’s Nikkei outperforms thanks to US-inspired Tech gains and a Yen off its highs after the Bank of Japan cuts its inflation outlook, the USD extended its rebound and trade data showed imports growth exceeding exports. Australia’s ASX has benefited from Banks continuing to rally on yesterday’s less onerous capital requirement news, as well as a welcome pullback by the Aussie Dollar despite more upbeat employment data.

UK 100 news this morning: Anglo American Q2 copper production +8%, increased guidance for iron ore, on track for rest of products. easyJet Q3 revenue per seat +2.2% beats guidance, helped by Easter timing, higher loads and better underlying trading. It has also upped profits guidance.

Unilever underlying sales growth in-line, on track for FY +3-5% with margin expansion. Sports Direct says weak GBP and a lack of FX hedging hurt FY results; appointed new CFO. SSE confirms target dividend growth in excess of UK RPI inflation but offers cautious commentary.

US companies reporting later today include Dow components Microsoft, Travelers and Visa, as well as online auctioneer eBay, global asset manager BNY Mellon and major tobacco player Phillip Morris.

US equity markets enjoyed a record breaking Wednesday as the Dow Jones joined its peers at a fresh all-time closing high. While IBM weighed on the price-weighted index after soft Q2 results, Boeing and UnitedHealth led 26 of the index’s 30 constituents higher. The S&P500’s tech sector surpassed its dotcom peak 17 years ago to lead the blue-chip index to a fresh high, while the tech-focused Nasdaq understandably also closed higher.

Crude Oil prices have extended gains made after the US EIA reported a sharp drawdown in US crude oil inventories yesterday afternoon. Most importantly, the EIA also reported production at a lower level than in recent weeks, supporting the rally. However, gains remained capped by intersecting resistance at July highs and a dollar off its lows, holding Brent and US crude from regaining key $50 and $47.50 handles, respectively.

As the dollar continues to edge off its lows and US bourses notch yet more record high, Gold remains boxed in by 7-month intersecting rising lows support and 6-month intersecting resistance at $1238-$1245. Investors will be carefully listening to ECB head Mario Draghi at his policy update press conference this afternoon for any indication (explicit or implicit) as to the timing he expects tapering to begin.

In focus will be UK June Retail Sales (9.30am), forecast back to growth (0.4% vs -1.2% prev) to help the annual pace return to its 2.5% 4-month average. Watch UK Index retailers and GBP; stronger growth could imply better retailer performances and stoke the fires of inflation.

The ECB July monetary policy update (12.45 text, 1.30pm press conf) will update on the Eurozone economy (growth recovery, falling unemployment but subdued inflation) and the central bank’s policy outlook. Focus will be less on rates (still negative), more so on the next move for its QE bond-buying stimulus programme, Draghi having already hinted at tapering. Watch Euro and DAX.

We know what the ultimate goal is with ECB QE (taper purchases to zero), however it’s more about how soon it wants to start. With the Fed now unlikely to hike in September, and cooler UK inflation taking the pressure off the BoE to act in August, the ECB may be the only major central bank left to tighten policy move over the next few months. September, after the summer break?

Stateside releases are limited to the Philly Fed Business Outlook (1:30pm) which is seen falling again, back to levels seen in both April and Jan. US Leading Index (3pm), while weaved into the mix is Eurozone Consumer Confidence (also at 3pm), the flash reading seen delivering another slight increase to a fresh 10yr highs, edging ever closer to its first positive reading since Jan 2001.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

• Sports Direct earnings slump on weak pound, ‘optimistic’ on prospects
• Premier Foods reports 3.1% dip in first-quarter sales
• UK kitchen maker Howden Joinery’s H1 revenue rises
• British Gas pays customers $1.4m for failed appointments
• Activist fund Elliott adds potash to list of BHP grievances
• Budget airline easyJet lifts profit outlook after strong quarter
• SSE loses 230,000 customer accounts in three months to end – June
• Unilever CFO says more likely that developed market spreads business has more interest from private equity
• Unilever lifts margin target after first-half improvement
• Moneysupermarket.com reports HY group revenue of £165.3m
• De La Rue says expectations for 2017/18 remain unchanged
• Anglo American raises FY Kumba iron ore production guidance
• Vimto maker Nichols says HY adjusted pretax profit up 6.8%
• Big Yellow Group reports qtrly revenue of £27.8m
• Gold inches down ahead of ECB meeting
• Oil steady after big drop in U.S. fuel stocks, but markets remain bloated