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Morning Report - 19 June 2017

Friday’s FTSE 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
St James’s Place 1236 50.0 4.2 21.9
Mondi 2093 83.0 4.1 25.6
DCC 7495 265.0 3.7 24.1
Worldpay Group 323.3 11.3 3.6 19.8
3i Group 911.5 31.0 3.5 29.5
Friday’s FTSE Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Tesco 171.1 -8.9 -4.9 -17.3
Sainsbury (J) 252.3 -10.1 -3.9 1.2
Anglo American 967.3 -27.8 -2.8 -16.6
Marks & Spencer Group 345.2 -6.6 -1.9 -1.4
Provident Financial 2854 -46.0 -1.6 0.2
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK FTSE 100 7,463.5 44.2 0.60 4.5
UK FTSE 250 19,816.4 262.7 1.34 9.6
FR CAC 40 5,263.3 46.4 0.89 8.3
DE DAX 30 12,752.7 60.9 0.48 11.1
US DJ Industrial Average 30 21,384.3 24.3 0.11 8.2
US Nasdaq Composite 6,151.8 -13.7 -0.22 14.3
US S&P 500 2,433.2 0.7 0.03 8.7
JP Nikkei 225 20,066.4 123.2 0.62 5.0
HK Hang Seng Index 50 25,882.3 255.8 1.00 17.6
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,797.8 23.8 0.41 2.3
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 44.63 0.00 0.01 -2.9
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 47.26 0.07 0.15 -2.1
Gold ($/oz) 1253.95 -1.25 -0.1 -1.2
Silver ($/oz) 16.62 -0.05 -0.31 -3.3
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2771 -0.07 0.2
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1194 0.07 0.0
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1409 -0.13 0.2
FTSE 100 called to open +50pts at 7515

FTSE 100: 2 weeks; hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)  

FTSE 100 Index called to open +50pts at 7515, almost completing last Thurs/Fri’s bullish flag rebound from 5-week lows at 7380. Bears highlight falling highs resistance at 7525, potential capping the bounce. Bulls point to the overnight break above 7500 intersecting resistance. Bulls need a break above falling highs at 7525, bears a break below 7500. Watch levels: Bullish 7530, Bearish 7500.

A positive opening call comes as traders welcome another Macron victory in France, this time in Parliamentary elections, which give hope to him passing reforms that can help both the French economy and thus Europe. There is also optimism about a positive start to UK-EU Brexit negotiations which kick off today in Brussels. The GBP may be off its lows, but not proving a FTSE hindrance yet.

Just as the UK’s grocers were hit Friday by fears of more intense competition from Amazon after its acquisition of Whole Foods, the same is true down under, where Amazon has made a recent push. Australia’s ASX retailers therefore holding the index back overnight along with Energy. 

Solid Chinese Property Price data, however, in spite of governmental cooling measures to avoid a bubble bust, may be helping the Aussie index outperform in Asia overnight, coupled with buoyancy for metals prices and their Miners.

Japan’s Nikkei is buoyed by fresh Yen weakness versus USD, EUR and GBP following trade data showing Exports growing more slowly than expected in May and Imports growing faster. Oil holding around recent lows is also weighing in Energy. UK investors may want on keep an eye on UK housebuilders this morning after disappointing Rightmove House Price data overnight.

US equity markets were mixed on Friday to finish the week, with notable divergence between indices. The Dow Jones closed at another fresh record high as Energy stocks offset significant losses for WalMart after Amazon’s $13.7bn offer for Whole Foods. The S&P500 followed suit, closing just above flat as Energy names offset losses for Consumer Stables, while the Tech-focused Nasdaq continued to underperform peers.

Crude Oil prices have fallen from Friday’s recovery highs after the Baker Hughes Rig Count notched its 22nd consecutive weekly increase, however both major benchmarks have avoided falling to fresh 7-month lows during Asian trading. An overnight bounce from $47.10 (Brent) and $44.50 (US) has seen a test of falling highs resistance on both measures, although no comprehensive breakout has been mounted.

Gold is trading close to the floor of a tight $1251-$1257.50 trading channel which emerged on Thursday, having fallen from overnight highs of $1256 on account of brief dollar strength. As the greenback has come off its highs, however, the precious metal is subsequently off its worst level. FX movements could provide a significant break either side of the tight channel limits. Bulls will be looking for falling highs resistance at $1252.50 to give way while bears want to see anything below $1251 for fresh 4-week lows.

Today’s headline event will be the start of official Brexit negotiations with British and EU diplomats beginning the painstaking task of unravelling almost five decades of integration. Nothing ground breaking is expected for some time however, with detailed talks still to come. Today is considered a trust-building exercise, each side officially tabling demands to kick off an already delayed process working towards a concrete deadline (March 2019). Any sound bites have potential to keep markets (FTSE, DAX, GBP, EUR) on their toes.

The macro docket today is strikingly light with Eurozone Construction Output (10am), looking to avoid a second month of slowing, being the only release of note. As a result, speakers will drive this afternoon’s US session with New York Fed Governor Dudley (1pm) likely offering the first dovish insight into stateside monetary policy.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • France’s Europcar to acquire low – cost rival Goldcar
  • Cairn Energy issues update on India tax dispute
  • Rockpool Acquisition to list on London’s main market
  • Amec Foster Wheeler says unit signs equipment contract
  • Innovaderma sees FY revenue and profits to be well ahead of expectations
  • Avanti says signs 2 – yr contract worth $4.5m
  • Co – Operative Bank says in rescue discussions with investors
  • Workspace says to sell Residential Redevelopment in Bow
  • Gold hits near four – week low as dollar firms
  • Oil prices dip on further rise in U.S. drilling, demand slowdown

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  • Our research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. Accendo Markets research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and may not comply with FCA guidelines to prevent conflicts of interest and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of research. As such, this research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction, it is produced and distributed for information purposes only. Accendo Markets considers information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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