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Morning Report - 16 May 2019

Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Auto Trader Group PLC 591.4 21.8 3.8 30
Compass Group PLC 1778.5 50 2.9 7.8
DCC PLC 6886 166 2.5 15.1
Rightmove PLC 561.1 12 2.2 29.8
Halma PLC 1779.5 38 2.2 30.5
Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Kingfisher PLC 233 -8.8 -3.6 12.3
SSE PLC 1083 -28 -2.5 0.1
DS Smith PLC 330.6 -7.5 -2.2 10.5
Smurfit Kappa Group PLC 2167 -34 -1.5 4.1
National Grid PLC 842.8 -7.5 -0.9 10.3
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK FTSE 100 7,297.0 55.4 0.8 8.4
UK FTSE 250 19,369.8 2.4 0.0 10.7
FR CAC 40 5,374.3 32.9 0.6 13.6
DE DAX 30 12,099.6 108.0 0.9 14.6
US DJ Industrial Average 30 25,648.0 116.0 0.5 9.9
US Nasdaq Composite 7,822.2 87.7 1.1 17.9
US S&P 500 2,851.0 16.6 0.6 13.7
JP Nikkei 225 20,998.8 -189.8 -0.9 4.9
HK Hang Seng Index 50 28,308.6 39.9 0.1 9.5
AU S&P/ASX 200 6,313.2 29.0 0.5 11.8
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 62.58 0.3 0.5 37.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 72.14 0.3 0.4 33.3
Gold ($/oz) 1297.03 1.5 0.1 1.1
Silver ($/oz) 14.76 0.1 0.6 -4.6
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2848 0.0 0.8
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1209 0.0 -2.3
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1463 0.0 3.1
FTSE 100 called to open -37pts at 7261

FTSE 100: 2-months, 4 hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview:

FTSE 100 called to open -37pts at 7260 (ex-dividends -23pts), back from overnight highs of 7311. Bulls require a break above 7280 to challenge the highs. Bears require a breach of 7245 overnight lows for a further retrace towards 7129. Watch levels: Bullish 7280, Bearish 7240

Calls for a negative open come as 3 of the top 5 companies in the FTSE 100 by market capitalization pay dividends today and PM May faces another call for resignation as well as a deadlock in Brexit negotiations with the opposition.

Asian markets mixed after Donald Trump announced banning Huawei telecom equipment but delaying implementation of auto tariffs on the EU and Japan for 6 months. US Markets up slightly as trade worries make room for optimism.

Gold ($1296) moving within a 0.6% descending range as trade tensions eae up and investors are slowly looking back towards currencies and equities. Brent Crude Oil ($72.4) keeps moving to the upside as Middle East tensions continue, stoking risk of supply disruptions. Copper ($2.73) keeps moving to the upside amidst trade war fears easing. GBP ($1.28) is at the lowest levels since February due to political infighting and a strengthening USD.


In corporate news this morning:

Lloyds to pay quarterly dividends from 2020; Q1-3 = 20% of prior year; Q4 = 80% announced with FY results; will continue to consider ways to return excess capital.

Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust reports full year NAV +14.6% (fair value; book value +14.4%), outperforming its FTSE All-World index benchmark (+10.7%).

3i Group FY total return -12.1% YoY (18% return vs 24% prev), NAV +12.5%, Operating expenses +4.1%, operating cash profit +318%, Gross Investment return 21% vs 27% prev, dividend -9% YoY. 2020 started like 2019, much uncertainty, remain cautious.

Micro Focus expects interim results in -ine, on a constant FX basis, with guidance given on 14 Feb (revenues -4 to +6%); collection of aged trade receivables has continued in line with expectations.

Burberry FY revenues flat (-1% at constant FX), in-line; revenues +2% ex-Beauty Wholesale;  adj operating profit -6%, bottom end of consensus range; Adj. EPS flat just above consensus. Confirms guidance for broadly stable revenue and adj. operating margin at CER in FY 2020; H2-weighted.

National Grid FY operating profit -18% (underlying -2%), pre-tax profit -31% (underlying -3%), EPS -57% (underlying +5%); final dividend +2.7%; RoE -50bp; Cadent sale expected by June with £2bn proceedsl; Asset growth on track for top end of 5-7% range in med-term.

Balfour Beatty on track to deliver performance in line with full year expectations.

Countryside Properties says H1 pre-tax profit slips 2.8% on higher costs on revenues +27%, but well placed to deliver on full year expectations. Order book +44%; interim div +42%;

Grainger H1 net rental income +33%, like-for-like rental growth +3.7%, pre-tax profit +7%; interim dividend +10%. Market portfolio +0.6%; in a strong position to deliver a good performance in H2 and a positive overall result. 

Premier Oil YTD production +14% to 85.1K boepd, increases FY guidance to 75-80K boepd. 2019 operating costs and capex guidance unchanged; Net debt reduced to $2.25B; forecast 2019 net debt reduction at upper end of $250-350m guidance, at current oil prices.

Just Group Q1 retirement income sales -59%, defined benefit sales -90%, GIFL sales -23%; Lifetime Mortgage advances -47%;  quiet start to year, but DB transaction volumes in Q2 been good.


In focus today:

US Housing Starts and Building permits (1.30pm) could further boost stateside market sentiment should they deliver the rebound consensus has pencilled in. A pick-up in the Philly Fed (1.30pm) has potential to do the same. Watch USD (and GBP) and US stocks.

Results from across the pond include NVIDIA (barometer of tech sentiment and economic growth?), Pinterest (another recent tech IPO), Walmart (anything more about an ASDA IPO?).

Elsewhere, a Eurogroup meeting could see comments about the Eurozone economy. We get speeches from ECB Chief Economist Praet (8:30am) and De Guindos (2.30pm), both at a conference “European Financial Integration and Stability – The International Role of the Euro”.

Bundesbank head and ECB member Weidmann (9.15am and 5.30pm), Coeure (7pm) and Bank of England’s Haskel (6.30pm) could also move their respective Euro and Sterling currencies.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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