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Morning Report - 14 September 2018

Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Antofagasta 772 13.2 1.7 -23.2
Anglo American 1510.6 24.6 1.7 -2.5
Paddy Power Betfair 6985 105 1.5 -20.9
Glencore 299.5 4.4 1.5 -23.2
Coca-Cola HBC 2598 32 1.3 7.4
Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
NMC Health 3596 -108 -2.9 24.6
Imperial Brands 2624 -67.5 -2.5 -17.1
SSE 1120 -27 -2.4 -15.2
WPP Group 1125 -26.5 -2.3 -16.1
Ashtead 2334 -53 -2.2 17.2
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK FTSE 100 7,281.6 -31.8 -0.43 -5.3
UK FTSE 250 20,243.6 -136.9 -0.67 -2.3
FR CAC 40 5,328.1 -4.0 -0.08 0.3
DE DAX 30 12,055.5 23.2 0.19 -6.7
US DJ Industrial Average 30 26,146.0 147.0 0.57 5.8
US Nasdaq Composite 8,013.7 59.5 0.75 16.1
US S&P 500 2,904.2 15.3 0.53 8.6
JP Nikkei 225 23,028.5 207.2 0.91 1.2
HK Hang Seng Index 50 27,255.2 240.7 0.89 -8.9
AU S&P/ASX 200 6,170.5 41.8 0.68 1.7
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 68.79 0.19 0.28 14.5
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 78.27 0.07 0.09 17.5
Gold ($/oz) 1205.11 1.51 0.13 -7.5
Silver ($/oz) 14.23 -0.05 -0.32 -15.7
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.3119 0.06 -2.8
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1695 0.04 -2.5
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1219 0.04 -0.3
FTSE 100 Index called to open +30pts at 7310

FTSE 100: 1-month, daily

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

FTSE 100 Index called to open +30pts at 7310, well off 7280 overnight lows, but still in need of a break above falling highs (7315) and horizontal resistance (7325). Bulls need a break above the latter; Bears require a breach of 7295 rising support. Watch levels: Bullish 7325, Bearish 7295.

Calls for a positive open are supported by upbeat trading in Asia, after a positive US close (Tech rebound, USD weak), traders hopeful about US-China trade talks despite President Trump being the fly in the ointment, downplaying prospects for quick negotiations (“no pressure on USA”).

FTSE Miners in Australia welcomed overnight China data, with August Industrial Production (+6.1% YoY) and Retail Sales growth (+9%) accelerating (consensus stable), although Fixed Asset Investment (+5.3%) fell to its lowest ever, potentially hindered by the threat of US tariffs.

FTSE Housebuilders may be sensitive to Bank of England Governor Carney’s warning to PM May’s Cabinet that a no-deal Brexit worst-case scenario could push the UK into recession, unemployment spike and house prices plunge 25-35%. Oil prices off overnight highs, as US Hurricane Florence, albeit still very much a threat, was downgraded to a Category 1.

In corporate news this morning AstraZeneca (& partner MedImmune) gets US FDA approval for Lumoxiti to treat hairy cell leukaemia, the first new treatment option in over 20 years. Vedanta Resources (under takeover by Volcan Investments) discovers gas in Indian A-32 exploration well.

Sirius Minerals agrees to $250m royalty drawdown (+ $50m equity component) to provide sufficient liquidity for project into Q2 2019, in advance of stage 2 financing. SThree Q3 gross profit +13%, trading in majority of markets encouraging, confident in full year prospects.

JD Wetherspoon FY like-for-like sales +5.0%, but revenues and op. profit towards bottom end of consensus, dividend unchanged. “Reasonable start to financial year” (6-week sales +5.5%), but higher costs to require like-like-for sales growth of ~4% to maintain record profits.

Avon Rubber H2 trading strong, expects FY pre-tax profit in-line; Protection revenue expected +7%, Dairy +4%. Good order book visibility, expects 100% EBITDA cash conversion. Bank of Georgia awarded Consumer Digital Bank of Distinction Award for second year running.

Close Brothers sold its retail finance unit (£66m loan book) to Swedish payments provider Klarna to exit unsecured retail point-of-sale finance market. Investec CEO to step down, plans to list Asset Management business separately within 12 months; H1 revenues expected moderately ahead (Asset Mgt higher, Wealth & Inv lower), but profits lower third-party; challenges in key geographies.

In focus today will be the BoE Governor Carney (11am) giving the bi-annual Whitaker lecture at the Irish Central Bank. Following yesterday’s unanimous decision by the BoE’s MPC to leave policy unchanged, traders will be listening out for any hints about UK policy outlook.

In terms of macroeconomic data, another month of solid growth expected for US Retail Sales (1:30pm), although the pace may have slowed. Import Price Inflation is likewise seen slowing from its recent tariff-boosted peak. Meanwhile, Uni of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey (3pm) is forecast higher in September, a minor rebound from August lows, although confidence still downbeat versus the first half of the year.

Other speakers today include the ECB’s Nowotny (9am, hawkish) taking part in a panel discussion on banking. This afternoon, the Fed’s Evans (2pm, dovish, non-voter) discusses economic conditions and monetary policy, with an audience and media Q&A, while colleague Rosengren (3pm, hawkish, non-voter) speaks at a Brookings Institution conference.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

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