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Morning Report - 14 May 2019

Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Centrica PLC 95.4 2.8 3.0 -29.4
National Grid PLC 849.6 14.1 1.7 11.4
Compass Group PLC 1730.5 23.5 1.4 4.9
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 504 5.4 1.1 -18.5
Severn Trent PLC 1982.5 21 1.1 9.3
Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
ITV PLC 111.8 -7.6 -6.3 -10.1
TUI AG 781 -46.8 -5.7 -30.2
Vodafone Group PLC 131.78 -7.2 -5.2 -13.7
Evraz PLC 556.4 -30 -5.1 15.7
Antofagasta PLC 803.2 -32.4 -3.9 2.3
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK FTSE 100 7,163.7 -39.6 -0.5 6.7
UK FTSE 250 19,127.0 -239.9 -1.2 9.5
FR CAC 40 5,262.6 -64.9 -1.2 11.5
DE DAX 30 11,876.7 -183.1 -1.5 12.8
US DJ Industrial Average 30 25,325.0 -617.3 -2.4 8.7
US Nasdaq Composite 7,647.0 -269.9 -3.4 15.9
US S&P 500 2,811.9 -69.5 -2.4 12.3
JP Nikkei 225 21,017.3 -173.9 -0.8 5.0
HK Hang Seng Index 50 28,148.4 -401.9 -1.4 8.9
AU S&P/ASX 200 6,233.5 -64.1 -1.0 10.4
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 61.84 0.1 0.1 36.1
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 71.05 0.2 0.3 31.2
Gold ($/oz) 1298.90 12.9 1.0 1.3
Silver ($/oz) 14.80 0.0 -0.1 -4.3
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2964 -0.2 1.6
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1232 0.0 -2.0
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1542 -0.3 3.7
FTSE 100 called to open +17pts at 7180

FTSE 100: 2-months, 4 hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview:

FTSE 100 called to open +17pts at 7180, extending last night’s bounce off 7130. Bulls need a break above 7200 to give hopes of a greater bullish recovery. Bears require a breach of 7180 (overnight breakouts) for a chance of a full retrace.  Watch levels: Bullish 7200, Bearish 7180.

Calls for a positive open come despite US-China trade tensions increasing with China introducing retaliatory tariffs on $60bn of US imports as well as threatening to escalate things by reducing its significant holdings of US Government debt. US indices fell at least 2%. The Asian session kept its momentum to the downside overnight amid trade uncertainty, but the sell-off moderated later in the day.

Gold ($1298) soared yesterday after the Chinese imposed additional tariffs as the USD weakened and investors sought out safe-havens. Brent Crude Oil ($70.8) recovered part of its large losses yesterday on supply concerns. Copper ($2.71) moved to the downside amidst the tensions and despite USD weakness. GBP is surprisingly weak vs USD, now below $1.30, helping the FTSE.


In corporate news this morning:


Vodafone cuts div to 9c to reduce debt. FY Revenues €43.7B, below consensus; EBITDA €14.1B at lower end of consensus; Adj. EPS 5c well below 9c consensus after loss on disposal of Vodafone India. Q4 organic service revs -0.6% beats -0.7% company consensus. Organic adj. EBITDA +3.1% beats 3% guidance. 2020 guidance Adj. EBITDA €13.8-14.2B (low single digit), free cash flow flat.

Vodafone sells Vodafone New Zealand to consortium for cash consideration equivalent to a €2.1B enterprise value. On completion, Vodafone and VFNZ will enter into Partner Market agreement.

Land Securities revenue profit +8.9% (net rental income up, costs down), loss before tax +186%, adj. EPS +12.4%, dividend +3.1%, Net Asset per share -4.5%, Valuation deficit -4.1%; noticeable shift to quality space in capital and vacancy rate fallen; See no near-term improvement in retail.

Renishaw 9M total revenues +0.3% (Metrology -0.5%, Healthcare +14.2%), adj. profit before tax -18.4%;Based on recent order trends and customer feedback, cuts full year revenue guidance by 2.5% to 3.2%, cuts pre-tax profit guidance by 5.1% to 6.6%.

DCC full year revenues +16%; adj. op. profit +20.1% (LPG +20.5%, Retail & Oil +17.6%, Tech +35.1%, Healthcare +11.1%); dividend +12.5%, free cash flow +32%; expects another year of profit growth and development. Reached pact with Shell Aviation to create new business in Denmark.

Standard Life Aberdeen Q1 AUM +3% (Institutional/W’sale/Wealth/Digital +1.7%; Strategic Insurance Partners +3.9%), Retail +6.2%; Inflows boosted by £3.5B Virgin Money Assets.

Ei Group pre-tax profit -71% H1 2019 and will initiate a new $30 million share buyback program. Revenue +7%, expect challenging trading periods in June and July.

Premier Foods swings to FY pretax loss on higher administrative costs; In the coming year will focus on reducing its net debt; going seen slow in first half of year.


In focus today:

UK Unemployment data (9:30am) will kick off the trading day for investors, with the unemployment rate expected unchanged at 3.9% and the claimant count slightly lower at 24.2K.  

That said, UK Wage growth may steal the show, potentially pulling back from recent highs of 3.5% to narrow the gap with stubbornly low inflation at 1.9% (1.8% core).

Eurozone Economic Sentiment (10am) is expected to continue April’s move to the positive range for the first time since September sowing some optimism for the Eurozone region. That said Eurozone Industrial Production (10am) likely weakened in March.

NFIB Business Optimism may have ticked up in April. In a nod to the US-China trade tariff war, US Import/Export (1:30pm) may show a strengthening in Import Prices while Exports hold firm.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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