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Morning Report - 13 May 2019

Friday’s FTSE 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Ferguson 5514 154 2.9 9.91
Intertek 5124 100 2.0 6.75
BA-owner IAG 498.6 9.3 1.9 -19.32
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets 215.4 3.7 1.8 1.01
RSA Insurance 554.2 7.8 1.4 7.9
Friday’s FTSE 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Bunzl 2125 -65 -2.97 -10.3
Imperial Brands 2164.5 -63 -2.83 -8.94
British Land 570 -14 -2.4 6.9
AstraZeneca 5692 -134 -2.3 -3.08
Centrica 92.6 -1.6 -1.7 -31.36
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK FTSE 100 7,203.3 -4.1 -0.1 7.1
UK FTSE 250 19,366.8 81.2 0.4 10.7
FR CAC 40 5,327.4 14.3 0.3 12.6
DE DAX 30 12,059.8 85.9 0.7 14.2
US DJ Industrial Average 30 25,942.3 114.0 0.4 11.2
US Nasdaq Composite 7,916.9 6.4 0.1 19.3
US S&P 500 2,881.4 10.7 0.4 14.9
JP Nikkei 225 21,176.6 -168.3 0.0 5.8
HK Hang Seng Index 50 28,550.2 Closed Closed 10.5
AU S&P/ASX 200 6,283.9 -27.0 -0.4 11.3
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 61.65 -0.1 -0.2 35.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 70.88 0.1 0.1 30.9
Gold ($/oz) 1284.72 -2.9 -0.2 0.2
Silver ($/oz) 14.82 -0.1 -0.7 -4.2
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.3007 0.1 2.0
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1228 -0.1 -2.1
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1584 0.1 4.2
FTSE 100 called to open +15pts at 7217

FTSE 100: 3-day, 10 mins

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview:

FTSE 100 called to open +15pts at 7217, holding within its 3-day 7190-7280 sideways channel. Bulls need a break above 7240 to regain the upper half of the channel and re-test the ceiling. Bears require a breach of 7190 to vacate the channel to the downside. Watch levels: Bullish 7240, Bearish 7190.

Calls for a mildly positive open come despite US-China trade talks failing to deliver any breakthrough and Trump threatening yet more tariffs on Chinese imports. Asian markets weak overnight due to unresolved trade talks. With no date set for further negotiations, the Japan G20 summit in June is the next likely setting.

Although US markets closed higher, they had their worst week since December dented by a less-than-impressive Uber IPO fuelling questions about overvalued and unprofitable companies.

Gold ($1284) remains surprisingly range bound helped by equity market uncertainty. Brent Crude Oil ($70.9) is also within a multi-week range despite news of Saudi oil vessels being attacked. Copper ($2.73) is barely off above recent lows. GBP is still at the key $1.30 level of last week, which could be supportive of any FTSE bounce.


In corporate news this morning:

Centrica Jan-Apr performance in-line but trading challenging due to UK default tariff cap, warm weather, falling UK nat gas prices and outages; temporary but will impact H1 results, puts pressure on FY guidance; Cost savings to accelerate in H2 so reiterates cash flow and net debt guidance.

Victrex H1 sales -16%, revenues -13%, Gross profit -18%, underlying pre-tax profit -17% , statutory pre-tax profit -21%; H1 weak as expected due to Automotive, improved H2 run-rate but slower than anticipated; headwinds will be broadly neutral, incremental operating investment limited…any improvement gradual and back-end weighted…challenging to achieve year-on-year growth in H2.

Metro Bank responds to press speculation; plans to raise £350m of equity capital by end-Q2 are well advanced. Commenced final discussions with existing shareholders and new investors

FirstGroup gets requisition notice form Coast Capital (9.77% stake) for general meeting proposing resolutions to take control of Board.

LondonMetric Property announces pre-lets for 138K sq ft at Bedford Link Logistics Park; 15 year leases at average rent of £7.25 p/sqft generating £1m rent per annum, 76% subject to inflation linked uplifts. Expected yield 6.4%.

Diploma H1 revenues +11% (+6% underlying), adj. Operating profit +12%, adj. Pre-tax +13%, free cash flow -21%, interim dividend +10%; Good performance across all 3 sectors; Some early signs of slower activity in Industrial Seals, optimistic about acquisitions; reiterates FY guidance.

Dignity Q1 underlying revenues -15%, underlying operating profit -42% (Funerals -34%, Crematoria -16.1%, Overheads +55%); Avg revenues  down 5-8%, performance below expectations due to deaths -12% but trend should improve; Funeral market share and average income in line.


In focus today:

US Consumer Inflation Expectation (4 pm), which were 2.8% last month could sway expectations about a Fed rate rise, but only if we get a figure closer to 3%,

Speakers from the US Federal Reserve include Rosengreen (2.05pm) and Clarida (2.10pm) this afternoon which could keep attention on Fed policy outlook.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance.

Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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