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Morning Report - 11 March 2019

Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Admiral 2140 52 2.49 4.54
Fresnillo 798.4 17 2.18 -7.16
Unilever 4161 40 0.97 1.28
Vodafone 136.8 1.2 0.87 -10.53
National Grid 873.4 6.3 0.73 14.29
Yesterday’s FTSE 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
GVC 588.5 -95.5 -13.96 -12.69
Ashtead 1897 -80 -4.05 15.88
Antofagasta 923.4 -38.2 -3.97 17.9
DS Smith 337.1 -12.3 -3.52 12.63
International Consolidated Airlines 539 -15.2 -2.74 -12.78
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK FTSE 100 7,104.3 -53.2 -0.74 5.6
UK FTSE 250 19,047.7 -136.1 -0.71 8.8
FR CAC 40 5,231.2 -36.7 -0.70 10.6
DE DAX 30 11,457.8 -60.0 -0.52 8.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 25,450.3 -23.0 -0.09 9.1
US Nasdaq Composite 7,408.1 -13.3 -0.18 11.7
US S&P 500 2,743.1 -5.9 -0.21 9.4
JP Nikkei 225 21,125.1 99.5 0.47 5.5
HK Hang Seng Index 50 28,403.6 175.1 0.62 9.9
AU S&P/ASX 200 6,180.2 -23.6 -0.38 9.5
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 56.36 1.14 0.02 24.1
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 66.02 1.28 0.02 21.9
Gold ($/oz) 1298.17 -1.13 0.00 1.2
Silver ($/oz) 15.55 0.00 0.5
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2985 -0.25 1.8
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1237 0.02 -2.0
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1556 -0.27 3.9
FTSE 100 called to open +40pts at 7145

FTSE 100: 10-days, 1-hour

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview

FTSE 100 called to open +45pts at 7150, extending Friday’s 7075 bounce, keeping the index in a 2-week shallow falling channel. Bulls need a break above 7160 to challenge 7200 resistance. Bears require a breach of 7120 to test 7035 rising support. Watch levels: Bullish 7160, Bearish 7120

Calls for an positive open come as global equity markets stage a tentative recovery from their worst trading week since mid-December (only Australia in the red; FTSE dual-listed Miners -1%). Chinese officials tried to calm investors worried over trade slowdown, pointing to a recovery in China’s exports in early March following a 20% drop in February.

The Pound is weak, just off 3-week lows, ahead of this week’s Brexit votes where PM May’s deal is not expected to be approved. Failure of the Meaningful Vote 2.0 would pave the way for Parliament to formally rule-out a “no-deal” scenario and then extend Article 50 (see in focus below).

USD rebounding off Friday lows (helped by GBP weakness), helping FTSE’s international contingent. This follows comments from Fed Chair Powell (Sunday) that there is no need to either hike or cut interest rates, reiterating the central bank’s recent shift to a “patient” stance.

In corporate news this morning;

The FT reports the UK Banks being told to hold triple the usual liquid assets to be able to cope with a market meltdown if the UK crashes out of the EU. Elsewhere, the Deutsche Bank CEO is said to have dropped its opposition to exploring a merger with German rival Commerzbank.

Polymetal FY revenue +4% (in-line), cash costs -1% (beat own target), adj. EBITDA +5% (in-line), avg. gold price -2% (silver: -8%), net debt +7%, capex -10%, free cash flow +23%. Final div +3.3% (FY: +9%). FY’19-20 production guidance unchanged, 2019 cash costs seen in-line with 2018.

UK specialist mortgage providers OneSavings Bank and Charter Court Financial Services confirm advanced all-share (nil-premium?) merger talks. OSB would own 55% and its CEO would lead the new bigger outfit. Deadline for firm intention to make offer: 6 April.

Provident Financial reiterates rejection of NSF’s nil-premium offer. NSF offer doc published today. Cairn Energy expects final award from $1.4bn Indian tax claim to be more protracted, arbitration panel unlikely too rule before late 2019. Britvic appointed Joanne Wilson (ex-Tesco) as new CFO.

Superdry schedules general meeting for re-election of founders Dunkerton and Holder for 2 April. Kier Group revises net debt position (+38.8% from 22 Jan trading statement) after adjustments to hedging activities. FY guidance unchanged, still expected H2-weighted.

Vodafone sets mandatory conversion price of convertible bonds announced last week at 135p (shares closed 136.8p on Friday). Debenhams in advanced negotiations with lenders about extra £150m of facilities, of which £40m would refinance existing bridge loan.

Clarkson FY revenue +4.1%, in-line with expectations, underlying pre-tax profit -9.7%, final dividend +2% (full year: +3%). Forward order book +15%. Notes global trade & Brexit uncertainty leading to execution delays and impacting rates. Sees FY’19 results weighted toward H2.

In focus today:

UK Q1 Consumer Expectations (9.30am) will be interesting as we head towards Brexit (3.2% in Q4) with the Bank of England having pledged to be ready to act in the case of a hard no-deal Brexit.

Buckle up for tomorrow’s second Parliamentary vote on Brexit which, if rejected again, would mean further votes on a “Deal or No-Deal” (Weds) and a “Brexit Delay” (Thurs). Tuesday’s vote could dictate what Chancellor Hammond can announce in Wednesday’s UK Spring Budget, where he can boast favourable public finances. Will he be able to splash the cash or will he have to maintain a Brexit warchest?

US clocks went forward this weekend (“Spring forward; Fall back”) so all data is one hour earlier this week. US Jan Retail Sales (12.30pm) are forecast flat (headline & ex-Autos) after a surprisingly weak December. Business Inventories (2pm) may show similar, although seasonality may also explain last month’s contraction. Trump also releases the first tranche of his 2020 Budget where he is expected to ask for more money for a border wall.

The Bank of England’s (BoE) Haskel (1pm) speaks at the University of Birmingham, the ECB‘s Coeure is at a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels (Brexit likely to dominate) and Fed Chair Powell (11pm) gives videotaped welcoming remarks at an economy Washington conference.

Companies reporting this week include 888, Cairn Energy, Domino’s, G4S, Balfour Beatty, Hikma, Morrisons, Prudential, Standard Life Aberdeen, Capita, Berkeley and Wetherspoons.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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