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Morning Report - 5 August 2016

FTSE 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Aviva PLC 410.8 25.8 6.7 -20.4
Standard Chartered PLC 646 31.7 5.2 14.6
Intu Properties PLC 306.1 11.1 3.8 -3.5
Paddy Power Betfair PLC 8830 315.0 3.7 -2.8
BHP Billiton PLC 982.9 34.3 3.6 29.3


FTSE 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC 2220 -448.0 -16.8 -3.5
Randgold Resources Ltd 8635 -345.0 -3.8 108.4
Next PLC 5200 -140.0 -2.6 -28.7
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 51.95 -1.0 -2.0 -28.9
SABMiller PLC 4361 -44.5 -1.0 7.2
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK FTSE 100 6,740.2 105.8 1.59 8.0
UK FTSE 250 17,244.3 247.2 1.45 -1.1
FR CAC 40 4,345.6 24.6 0.57 -6.3
DE DAX 30 10,227.9 57.7 0.57 -4.8
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,352.0 -3.0 -0.02 5.3
US Nasdaq Composite 5,166.3 6.5 0.13 3.2
US S&P 500 2,164.3 0.5 0.02 5.9
JP Nikkei 225 16,254.6 -0.3 0.00 -14.6
HK Hang Seng Index 50 22,142.9 310.7 1.42 1.0
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,495.7 19.9 0.36 3.8
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 41.55 0.32 0.76 12.1
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 43.85 0.58 1.33 16.6
Gold ($/oz) 1369.80 3.40 0.25 29.2
Silver ($/oz) 20.43 0.05 0.26 47.8
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.31 0.04 -10.9
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.11 0.03 2.6
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.18 0.03 -13.1
FTSE 100 called to open +20pts at 6760

FTSE100 Cash, 1 month chart

FTSE 100 Cash (-)

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

FTSE 100 Index called to open +20pts at 6760 after yesterday’s 120 point rally took the index back up above 6700. The recovery stalled at the 1 Aug high 6770. Note the RSI has come back down from overbought while the MACD has made a bearish cross. Bulls looking for profit taking to peter out this morning and a resumption of the stimulus uptrend while bears will be selling on the aftorementioned bearish technical indicators. Updated watch levels: Bullish 6790, Bearish 6735.

A positive opening call for European equity markets comes after the Bank of England threw the kitchen sink at what is after all only a potential post-Brexit economic downturn. Even though it hasn’t happened yet, sentiment indicators are telling us it probably will.  Fitch has noted that the BoE’s actions are a ‘proactive’ step but will only soften the impact of Brexit (which is still a thing) rather than offset it. Subtle chat from the rating agency.

Asian markets are positive with investors there encouraged by the BoE – that perhaps being a lesson in market pacification for the Bank of Japan. Since the central bank announced that it would only increase its purchases of ETFs, while keeping interest rates and its purchases of Japanese government bonds unchanged, JGB yields have actually gone up. Will it now re-think?

US stocks closed largely unchanged with stateside investors looking ahead to today’s Non Farm Payrolls (forgot about that one didn’t you!). A stronger US Dollar will also be dampening US equities this morning after Sterling plunged post-BoE.

Crude oil futures are selling back from overnight highs once more, although both Brent and WTI are in rising channels – boosted by those bigger than expected draw downs in distillates we got earlier in the week. A little more downside perhaps – to $43.5 for Brent and $41.30 for WTI – before any potential bounce, although note a slightly stronger USD and this afternoon’s Baker Hughes Rig Count could cause the oil price to deviate from said forecasts.

Gold has popped up above its 50-hour moving average but is finding the going tough around $1365. Today’s US jobs report could mean its all quiet on the golden front this morning, with the inevitable USD volatility around lunchtime taking charge of gold’s fortunes into the weekend.

 In focus today we’ll be looking at UK Halifax house prices this morning ahead of this afternoon’s US jobs report. The Brexit effect is set to take house price growth negative in July but growth is seen accelerating on the quarter.

Non Farm payrolls is looking to come in around the long term average at 180K after a very strong print last month. Note potential for a negative surprise given that everyone will expect a bumper summer figure. US unemployment is seen falling to 4.8% which, according to economics, means too many people are in work.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • UK insurer esure’s H1 profit hurt by adverse weather events
  • William Hill H1 operating profit falls 16 pct on online woes
  • Builder Bellway says cautious over new land acquisitions after Brexit vote
  • RBS losses widen, unveils new plans to offload Williams & Glyn unit
  • Glencore suspends output at Zambia copper mine after accident
  • Dollar awaits jobs data, sterling nurses losses after BoE
  • Oil prices fall as short – covering rally fizzles, oversupply weighs
  • London copper eyes biggest weekly loss in one month

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Our research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. Accendo Markets research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and may not comply with FCA guidelines to prevent conflicts of interest and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of research. As such, this research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction, it is produced and distributed for information purposes only. Accendo Markets considers information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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