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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Rio Tinto | 2467.5 | 78.5 | 3.3 | 24.7 |
| Glencore | 185 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 104.5 |
| BHP Billiton | 1080 | 33.0 | 3.2 | 42.1 |
| Antofagasta | 541.5 | 14.5 | 2.8 | 15.4 |
| BAE Systems | 540.5 | 12.0 | 2.3 | 8.2 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| AstraZeneca | 4955 | -56.0 | -1.1 | 7.3 |
| Shire | 4850 | -52.0 | -1.1 | 3.2 |
| Burberry | 1320 | -13.0 | -1.0 | 10.5 |
| Imperial Brands | 3997 | -39.0 | -1.0 | 11.5 |
| Admiral | 2044 | -18.0 | -0.9 | 23.2 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,838.1 | 21.2 | 0.31 | 9.5 |
| UK | 17,930.8 | 48.0 | 0.27 | 2.9 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,424.3 | -17.6 | -0.40 | -4.6 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,544.4 | -43.4 | -0.41 | -1.9 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 18,503.0 | 107.5 | 0.58 | 6.2 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,232.3 | 13.4 | 0.26 | 4.5 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,180.4 | 11.3 | 0.52 | 6.7 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 16,723.4 | -14.1 | -0.08 | -12.1 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 23,008.7 | 187.4 | 0.82 | 5.0 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,478.3 | 9.1 | 0.17 | 3.4 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 47.14 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 27.2 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 49.39 | 0.16 | 0.33 | 31.4 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1325.55 | -1.65 | -0.12 | 25.0 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 18.83 | -0.12 | -0.62 | 36.2 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.31 | – | -0.24 | -11.3 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.12 | – | -0.21 | 2.8 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.17 | – | -0.03 | -13.7 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 called to open -10pts 6830, up off its lows of Friday (and Monday) having completed a short-term bullish double bottom reversal to trade back above 6800. However, it is also sideways overnight and yet to challenge the ceiling of an otherwise undisturbed 2-week downtrend. The Bulls will be looking for a breakout at 6840 to revive the longer-term uptrend. The Bears are waiting for signs of another retreat to the channel floor at 6740. Updated watch levels: Bullish 6845, Bearish 6815.
A negative opening call is despite a positive finish in the US and a relatively buoyant session in Asia overnight that saw stocks rise for the first day in three. The new week has seen risk appetite revived following Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, with markets seemingly more at ease with the possibility of a US interest rate rise by year-end. After all it does suggest the US economy is doing well. We’re still not convinced, and if it does happen we expect it in December rather than September.
Japan’s Nikkei is holding around breakeven thanks to exporters benefiting from a weaker Yen, itself derived from a stronger USD on the back of Janet Yellen’s speech. A raft of positive data from Japan (jobs, retail sales) is nonetheless failing to take stocks into positive territory. Note China and Australia pretty much flat in spite of the commodities under pressure due to the stronger USD.
US markets continue to benefit Friday’s Jackson Hole event and Yellen’s goldilocks speech (both hawkish and dovish elements), with gains in all major sectors. Financials understandably led the way on hopes of an interest rate rise by year-end (higher rates, higher profitability).
As mentioned, the stronger USD is keeping a lid on the commodity space. Note the breakdown by Iron-ore and copper still under pressure at 2-month lows. Aluminium is, however, holding rising support.
The latest Genscape report suggesting a marginal drawdown could inspire bullishness in oil prices ahead of this week’s US API and EIA stockpile data along with thorn in the side Iran confirming its attendance at September’s OPEC-led production freeze meeting.
Gold prices also remain in a downtrend flirting with the $1320 level again, not far from the $1312 lows of end-July. With what appears to be more faith in US economic recovery, demand for the safehaven is thus reduced while the stronger USD is also making it more expensive.
In focus today will be UK borrowing data for signs of consumer confidence, especially secured borrowing and mortgage approvals for confidence on the key housing market. European confidence readings are seen stable in August. US housing and Consumer Confidence data also seen stable.
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
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