Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -20pts at 6295, still under pressure after hitting recovery highs of 6370, reinforcing the falling trend dating back to May. Oscillation around 6300 continues, but with falling highs since Friday suggesting downside potential. Nonetheless, rising lows since early yesterday offer optimism, and are still in an uptrend since late August. Watch levels: Bullish 6335, Bearish 6270.

The negative opening call comes as the mining sector leads the losses in Asia overnight with industrial metals still under pressure (Copper and Nickel around 6yr lows) as supply gluts prove too much in the face of slowing global growth and USD strength ahead of a US rate rise and more ECB stimulus. A US worldwide travel alert is also denting sentiment during this Thanksgiving week while Brussels is set to remain in lockdown until next week.

Commodity price weakness has snapped a strong run of gains for Australia’s ASX with raw materials miners being held back, dual-listed BHP Billiton (BLT) close to its lowest close since 2008. Japan’s Nikkei posting small gains as it returns from holiday, with a late rally fuelled by hopes of more economic stimulus countering commodity price falls. China also suffering as metals producers are pulled lower. Note overnight data shows improved Japan PMI Manufacturing, but German GDP in-lien shows a drag from exports.

US markets closed in the red with some volatility throughout the day caused in part by some Saudi comments (more like empty promises actually…) that rocked the oil price and threw energy stocks around a bit. More constant pressure was applied to Wall St. by some consensus-missing macro-data (Manufacturing PMI still showing expansion; Chicago Fed activity index dipping negative; New Home Sales down 3.4%). While such soft data can sometimes buoy sentiment by supporting the case for looser monetary policy, it was taken at face value this time by the markets, living as they are with an ever more decisive Federal reserve.

In focus today will be German IFO surveys expected pretty much unchanged while the afternoon the second estimate for US Q3 GDP is seen improving although consumption and inflation are seen unchanged from the first estimate. US S&P Case-Shiller House prices may have accelerated their gains in September while Consumer Confidence rises and the Richmond Fed returns positive. Speaker-wise, we have BoE Governor Carney testifying to the Treasury Select Committee while the ECB’s Costa and Mersch could offer more thoughts on renewed ECB stimulus.