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Index Focus - 4 May 2016

Equity markets in the red again this morning with the UK Index underperforming on account of its exposure to weak raw-materials prices and renewed global growth woes from China data, sector data showing the incumbent supermarkets losing more market share and some poorly received earnings reports from several heavyweights. The DAX is faring better thanks to a weaker EUR resulting from the USD finding composure last night to bounce from 15-month lows. The Dow Jones is just the wrong side of breakeven on account of USD volatility (will the Fed hike or not this year?), the Aussie’s seemingly reigniting the currency wars theme and a dim outlook from a growing list of corporates which outweighs the bettering of handily depressed expectations.

UK 100  broken down from bearish pennant which could send it to 6070 April lows. DAX30 declines have slowed up which bodes well for a bounce off Feb rising lows around 9875 to keep the recovery ontrack. Wall Street/Dow Jones futures sideways into apex of narrowing pattern at 17750. Will rising April lows trump recent weakness? Gold back from a failed attempt to better $1300 hindered by the USD bounce and some likely profit taking. Support at $1280?

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Where next?
  1. Will the index rise towards highs of 6430? or;
  2. Will the index fall towards lows of 6070?

UK 100  broken down from a bearish pennant pattern which could see yesterday’s weakness and breach of 6220 take a second leg south to revisit April lows 6070.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Downtrend
  • Potential support: 6150, 6105, 6070
  • Potential resistance: 6180, 6200, 6220

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

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Where next?
  1. Will the index fall towards lows of 8700?  or;
  2. Will the index rise towards highs of 10860?

DAX weakness has slowed up which opens up the possibility of support and a bounce of Fed rising lows around 9875. Note an oversold 4-hourly RSI corresponds with the last four index rebounds.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 9900, 9800, 9750
  • Potential resistance: 9860, 10025, 10050

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

Where next?
  1. Will the index fall towards lows of 17500? or;
  2. Will the index rise towards highs of 18170?

The Dow Jones at breakeven into apex of narrowing pattern at 17750. Will rising April lows trump recent weakness and see the index power higher again or will we break lower.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Sideways
  • Potential support: 17715, 17665, 17650
  • Potential resistance: 17775, 17800, 17900

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

Where next?
  1. Will Gold fall towards lows of $1240? or;
  2. Will Gold rise towards highs of $1300?

Gold failed to clear the $1300 hurdle and has backtracked to April rising highs on a combination of the USD bouncing from its lows and some likely profit-taking after the safehaven’s recent rally and bearish double-top pattern.

Solid Green line
Possible support

Solid Red line
Possible resistance

  • Trend: Uptrend
  • Potential support: 1280, 1270, 1250
  • Potential resistance: 1285, 1290, 1300

Important: The information provided above does not constitute advice or opinion and must only be regarded as technical observations.

Click here for help with Support & Resistance Click here for help with technicals

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